RE:Raymont James PoO ForecastThere is no incentive for analysts to call it as it is. If they are bullish on the future oil price their best option is to forecast at the top of the range even if they expect the price to be far higher.
Also, recency bias is a big factor in all this. The oil price has risen while we are still in production surplus - more or less. Once supply and demand balance we will see strong buying, this will be later this year and this will take the oil price towards $100.
Into 2017 we will be in shortfall. Forget $80, the oil price will exceed $150 by mid 2017. Some analysts are expecting this but there is no gain for them professionally to be way ahead of the pack in predictive terms, so they stick with $80.
Once the market is in shortfall and once the market realises that we are going to stay in supply shortfall for several years there will be a buying frenzy and it is going to happen in 2017, I am certain of this.
Doug