RE:NCIBYesterday, i thought i was wrong on my NCIB assumption.Well i was right but
these Feb. purchases left me totally flabergasted.
I was expecting something between 500k to 1m.But never in my mind was i expecting
1952953 shares purchase in a single month.
The AVG. price pais was $38.79.With a low of $35.81 and a high of $39.80(Twice).
One of the $39.80 was on a big block of 337923 shares.
In a single month they have repurchase 32.32% of the NCIB.
My caculation was telling me that they would buy below $39.
Now we now that this level is $40
We can assume that they are active in March.So far in March ,we have seen good volume days.
In fact, there was a huge volume day on March 7th.On that day, there was almost 1 million share traded and the low of that day was $36.55.Let's cross our fingers that they were active on that day.
In any events, there will be 10% less shares than in Q1 of 2022 than in Q1 of 2021.
Plus we will have the additon of the 4 GP mills , one month of EACOM and 1 month of Westrock on a comparable basis.
So while the 3 BC mills will have lower sales and higher cost because of transportation issues
These should be more than offset by the sales addition of the new mills and the higher selling
price + these profits will be divided by 10% less shares.
No way will EPS that are presently being showed on Yahoo and on the WSJ be $4.44
Last year IFP earned $4.11
Without having done any in dept calculations, it is obvious that we will probably north of $5
and more.
As a long term investor, i hope that IFP does go to high in March so that they can repurchase another huge chunk of shares.
I will say it again,this management team are top in capital allocation.
I did some calculations and buying shares under $40 under the NCIB is cheape ron a MBF level than what they paid for Westrock, GP and EACOM.
In this war context, because of it's great balance sheet, hyper low valuation IFP is the place to be.
USA and Canada housing is underbuilt.It's not a 1 to 2% increase in interest ratest hat will bring housing starts to a halt.
Russia is the number 3 world lumber producer(2018 numbers).While most of their exports must go to Asia and
Europe.All these sanctions will make these 2 market even tighter.I don't think Europe and Russia are huge exporter to the USA and Canada but even a few % less in an already tight market will make a difference.
Book value at the end of Q1 will be north of $34.
Enjoy these low SP while they last