TSX:IFP - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on May 12, 2022 1:04pm
TD
Have a $50.00 target. GLTA
Interfor Corp.
(IFP-T) C$34.08
Exceptional Q1 Results; Slightly Below our Estimates Event
Interfor reported Q1/22 results yesterday after market close. Adjusted EBITDA of $570.1 million was slightly below our estimate of $588.4 million and the consensus forecast of $603.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA included a $68.0 fair value adjustment related to the acquisition of EACOM Timber. Our estimate included a $70.0 million value adjustment; it is unclear to what extent this factor was embedded in the consensus forecast. Adjusted EPS of $6.61 was below our estimate of $6.94 and the consensus forecast of $6.97.
Conference call at 11:00 a.m. ET this morning: 1-833-297-9919.
Impact: NEUTRAL
While Q1 operating results were a little below our forecast, results were still remarkable. Excluding the EACOM fair value adjustment, recurring adjusted EBITDA of $638.1 million was 29% above our estimate of the company's annual mid- cycle (trend) EBITDA.
Details
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Interfor's lumber price realizations jumped $588/Mfbm (+72%) q/q. The improvement lagged our expectation, but was generally consistent with peers'.
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EACOM generated material results out of the gate. Excluding the fair value adjustment, EACOM contributed adjusted EBITDA of $73.1 million in only five weeks of ownership (11% of total Q1 adjusted EBITDA and 11% of total production).
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Adjusted EBITDA margins of 47% more than doubled q/q as surging lumber prices outpaced unit cost inflation. B.C. stumpage cost relief contrasted with modest log cost inflation in the U.S. South (tied to contractor availability limitations).
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Consistent with its peers, Interfor built Q1 lumber inventory. Shipping challengescontributed to a 61 million board feet increase to mill inventories during Q1.
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Interfor is deploying capital at a rapid pace. After a pause in Q4, Interfor resumed aggressive share buybacks, repurchasing 5.0 million shares (8% of the total at the end of 2021) for $194.3 million in Q1. The company completed its 10% NCIB in April. Despite share buybacks, the $731.2 million EACOM acquisition, higher working capital, and a large tax payment, Interfor ended Q1 with minimal net debt and abundant available liquidity of $483.3 million. Q1/22 FCF was $3.78/ share (11% yield for the quarter). After quarter-end, Interfor disclosed a 16% equity stake in GreenFirst (an eastern Canadian lumber producer) for $55.6 million.
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