Post by
SleepingGiant64 on May 13, 2022 3:07pm
CIBC boosts price target
To $45 from $42. Reiterate outperformer.
They bumped Q2 to $5.39 vs $4.59 before (consensus $4.19). EBITDA at $452m vs $391m. Q3 and Q4 unchanged.
They have it at a 2022 P/E of 2.0. On EPS of $16.69 now. Consensus still at $13.91
They expect nearly $1B in freecash flow this year (market cap is $1.8b now?). So were talking something like 55% FCF yield).
"We estimate Interfor is trading at only ~US$355/mfbm for its 4.9 Bbf/yr platform (almost half of which is in the U.S. South), a steep ~55% discount to replacement costs (now over US$800/mfbm for a greenfield). This analysis ignores any value for the lumber duties on deposit (~$360MM as of Q1)"
Their bull case is $625 lumber and a target of $55 but a discounted multiple due to 'unsustainably' high lumber prices (even though in the same piece they note that greenfield mills now cost $800mfbm).