Inovalis Real Estate Investment Trust T.INO.UN

The numbers look bad. The risk is High.

[hawk35]

After the dividend was reduced by 50%, INO is paying out about $3.4 million every quarter on the dividend.

The loss of Arcueil in the middle of next year will reduce rental income by $2.7 million every quarter.  This is amost equal to 80% of the reduced quarterly dividend. By mid 2023, the payout ratio will rise significantly above 100% once again. 

How long will it take to refresh / repurpose the property and how much will it cost?  Will there be construction delays?  Once completed, how long will it take to find someone to lease it?  No wonder the SP is taking a big hit today.  I've been watching INO but won't buy even at this low price.  Too much can go wrong in the next 12 months including a recession.  The risk is too high.

[hawk35]

Another big concern is that INO is already in breach of several debt covenants on their loan and mortgage debt.  They could be forced to immediately repay the debt if the banks forced their hand.  This was disclosed in the 2022 Q2 report.  The covenant breach was caused by early termination of other smaller tennant leases.  The loss of this big lease in mid 2023 would be

[flamingogold]

Been there before. SRV was at the Scotia's mercy by nose but they worked with the owners and extended and extended because... well... pandemics end. And BBD, huh... they have been to hell and lower and are back stronger today taking out their debt obligations now into 2025. Banks don't want the real estate, the same as they won't take your house if you can't pay the mortgage. They

[stockrook86]

Agree 100%, the banks will not want to take a 100% vacant portfolio. They will extend and these just gives them more say on the repositioning efforts. I think some reit investors conflate stories about residential homeowners being underwater to these reits having all of their properties called. Firstly, these mortgages are on a property basis, so even if one is a write off they could

[stockrook86]

Forgot to mention the Cosbueil property is under contract to be sold before years end at roughly 20 million over the debt load. Do that is 20 million almost guaranteed of cash or about 1/6 of the reits market cap.

[BlueJay2020]

:) not until it stops dropping by 8% each day!  My prediction of $3.50 came true within a day, and now we are seriously looking at the high 2s as a possibility. The stock is at the mercy of speculators and shorters now, which will only add to the volatility.  Part of the trouble is that what was the sole reason to hold this stock - a stable income play - has been smashed to smithereens

[SIGG1]

we could see another dividend cut by another 50%, 2023 will be even more challenging than 2022 

[flamingogold]

Earnings were better than anticipated. Glacing at your posts, you like to spread fear.

[Lyburnum]

We`re on course for at least another couple more decent quarterly reports in Q4-2022 and Q1-2023. this should whack some sense into the fearmongerers and analysts. Ceterus Paribus. After that is another story, however. That said, the dividend is safe for another couple quarters at the moment, given all the current information available. It could all change tomorrow, but as far as I am aware the