Incitec Pivot Ltd T.IPL

RE:RE:RE:RE:Time to breathe

[porksniffer]

itsalie wrote:

GregC24 wrote: The Saudi's and Russia don't NEED high prices to make their deficits work.  They are sovereign states.  They can just issue debt.  Which is extremely cheap right now and would be gobbled up.  In the meantime, they can wait out the oil market creating market share for themselves and better long term profitability.

graffiti99 wrote: So true, it is a great company. Ive held for a while but these prices are......unbelievable. In my opinion, what a bargain. All the factors that are applying downward pressure are temporary and transient: coronavirus, Saudi vs. Russia, even the anti-pipeline activists logic falls in on itself. First nations...Wetsueten people want pipelines, it's only some (and not all) of hereditary chiefs that have expressed negativity. Canada's a bit slow, but everything will blow over and IPL will be sitting pretty. with a brand new polypropylene hydrogenation plant pumping out products and generating great margins. What a staple and achor for any sensible portfolio.

On questions of execution, will there be delays on plant build? Maybe, but it's half built, 66% de-risked, they're great operators and project managers. Will some producers go belly up? Maybe, but Saudi and Russia can't keep prices down for long - they're the ones that need high prices to make their account deficits work. It's totally irrational what they're doing. At a 12% dividend for IPL, 1.2 x book, PE of 11, I'm happy to buy,  put the share certificates in my filing cabinet and check back in a couple of years.

 

the idea is to crush US shale.. 

Newsflash chief. It;s destroying the Canadian energy sector even more. With the TSX lax rules on shorting and naked shorting, professional American shorts have arrived to drive us potentially out of business. Canadian producer's balance sheets certainly aren't great and most can not make money at this price, and can be brought to their knees.