Incitec Pivot Ltd T.IPL

Primary Symbol: ICPVF

Chemicals Basic Materials

Incitec Pivot Limited is an Australia-based manufacturer and supplier to the resources and agricultural sectors. Its segments include Asia Pacific and Americas. Asia Pacific segment includes Fertilisers Asia Pacific (Fertilisers APAC) and Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific (DNAP). Fertilisers APAC manufactures and sells fertilizers in Eastern Australia and the export market. It also manufactures, imports and sells industrial chemicals to the agricultural sector and other specialist industries. DNAP manufactures and sells industrial explosives and related products and services to the mining industry in the Asia Pacific region, Turkey and France. Americas segment includes Dyno Nobel Americas, which manufactures and sells industrial explosives and related products and services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries in the Americas (Canada, Mexico and Chile) and initiating systems to businesses in Australia, Turkey and South Africa. It also manufactures and sells industrial chemicals.

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Incitec Pivot Ltd > One step at a time. Don’t rush ahead of yourself

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Comment by Maxmoeon Jun 14, 2021 6:56pm

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Post# 33385972

RE:RE:One step at a time. Don’t rush ahead of yourself

Maybe PPL prevails, maybe not, but I'm just happy to wait and watch it play out. I don't see any downside to just munching popcorn. Splitting hairs to track how many hours IPL has traded at a tiny discount to the PPL bid. But as I said, if a discount of say 25 cents opens up and stays there, the big shareholders are telling us the show's over and the arbs will be the only buyer left. Which is still just fine by me compared to selling now. I don't need to decide if I'll tender to the Ipl offer for a month. So I'm not going to decide until then.

Fantome wrote:

Maxmoe wrote: Brookfield will fail in a week. I can wait a week. That's the next step. Ppl made the same foolish mistake bip made. They bid as low as possible trying to get a bargain. They should have made a knock out punch bid to just send bip away with their own tidy little profit. Step 2 ? Let's see if bip ups their bid again, walks, or a third player enters the play. Maybe that's who's been buying the stock lately. It's very interesting that IPL has NEVER traded below the bid. Round 1 nor round 2. Typically, when a deal is "done" the stock trades at a small discount for investors that don't want to wait and arbs buy it for a few bucks. It does not look like it's over yet. The current bids are both still a bargain. That's what the millions of shares trading above the bid is loudly telling you. Will PPL win a month from now? Why worry about it until it's time to ? I'll leave the daily gyrations to the day traders.

Based on my experience...I would generally agree with the substance of your post...well thought out....

That said...the elephant in the room is that IPL has agreed to the PPL offer and also to the breakup fee of 350 million. The breakup fee presents a strong deterrent to a competing offer or for Brookfield to raise their offer. While Brookfield has filed a court action regarding the breakup fee...as I posted earlier and other have supported....the prospect of an outright win by Brookfield is close to zero..they may be successful in reducing the size of the breakup fee a bit but IMO..even that is a long shot given the limited jurisprudence on the subject.

The beauty of the PPL bid is that the extra value of IPL over the current offer price...ie Heartland...IPL shareholders can still participate in that with a somewhat smaller risk than if IPL continued on its own. IMO..when you put these things together...the PPl offer will get through...