Robert Friedlans's crumbling Ivanhoe empire Part 3
Robert Friedlans's crumbling Ivanhoe empire Part 3
Eulogy for a billionaire no more
The truth vs. the legend
and the teens of $$ billion loses by the investors who
kept believing in his " golden-turned- toxic - touch "
for few years too long.
======================
A ...CAUTIONARY NOTES
RF or RMF = Robert Martin Friedland
This is just crude introduction , scraching just the top of the iceberg
Numbers are aporoximate and subject to future corrections /details.
To reduce the number of the many assumptions and to paint detailed story
one needs months of investigative journalism and army of foresenic accountants
Wich is beyound scope of this - our opinion only - introduction.
We claim safe harbour and claim the right to use as colorful
exxuberant phrases as RFM .
Some quoted facts and statements are taken at face value
Authors of those publications ( as well as we ) could have gotten them
in various degrees on rigth- wrong scale .
Most of our text is just copy and paste of easy avaliable
stuff on the Internet.
.Our role is just to organise it, connect the dots
discover the bigger picture, and draw the conclusions.
With an attempt to look at the RF story beyond smoke and mirror ,
BS, hype ,and " legend".
At any given time we may be short or long or both the various RF companies .
============================
B . THE POSITIVE INPACT OF RF
Yes , he discovered , 2 big deposits , created plenty of jobs over the years
Many OTHER THAN INVESTORS people (incl. army of stock promoters )
cos . and countries benefited from his activity.
EXCEPT for most of THE INVESTORS WHO FINANCED ALL ABOVE
and followed him blindly all the way to 2014
MADE HIMSELF $ 500-400 m SINCE THE LEGEND START IN 1996 TILL Jan,2014
As calculated here
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22058188
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ivn/ivanhoe-mines-limited?postid=22055226
BUT HE WOULD MADE FOR HIMSELF $ 6B SINCE 1996 IF HE
WOULD DO NOTHING - JUST PUT THE $ 400-500M HE HAD IN 1996
AND BOUGHT SP-500 INDEX instead.
HIS 18 Y OF HUSTLING CREATED FOR HIM $ 500M MORE BY JAN 2014
. LAZY AND EASY INVESTING IN SPX WOULD CREATE FOR HIM $ 5.5 B MORE
loooooooool
(SPX =10O0% 1996- 2014 despite 2 terrible crashes in between )
Succesful ?... FOR HIMSELF ( investors in him is totally different story )
YES-.... 50% return in 17 Y ( 4% aver Y ) is not too impressive
but $ 500m more is ( though it barely covers the inflation on $ 500m input )
Loss of easy opportunity elswhere of $ 5.5 b
without hustling , controversies ,walking on edge ,risking losing it all
...looks like not too smart choice both for him and
ESPECIALLY FOR INVESTORS FOLLOWING HIM for too long.
After all, cap of all mining cos in world is less than cap of AAPL ,MSFT etc
The natural limit to make money in mining ( 1/100- 1/200 of stock market or economy )
is UN-PENETRABLE lead ceiling
.( 55% of world's mining billionaires do not surpass $ 5 b
and mining billionaires are JUST 5% of ALL BILLIONAIRES )
B. COMPARE ROBERT FRIEDLAND TO MINING BILLIONAIRES ONLY
As fame of discovering 2 big deposit in 20 years time goes.
Well, in 20 years there were tens if not hundreds discoveries
of big deposits by people who's names you dont' know.
In 20 Y world replaced and expanded WHOLE WORLD's MINERAL RESERVES
AT LEAST 2 -3 TIMES OVER
( assuming aver 20 Y LOM= depletion and demand growth in 20 Y )
So, his contribution , as opposed to the "legend " is pretty tiny .
PRETTY TINY
TENS OR HINDREDS OF BOB FRIEDLANS who didn't spent tens of $ millions
( of your money lol ) to promote themselves and build a "legend "
There is 40-50 minning billionaires =
= ALL (95%)OF THEM richer than RF .
.He is on the very botom of mining billionaires list
and about to dissapear from it .
==========
C. GOOD NEWS RF IS NOT ALONE - 95% of mining billionaires go down
As much as 1/3 of them is on their way to join RF and be erased from the list
Just few examples
1. Eike Batista - a RF co-investor in pre IPO IVN
geeeeesus
Have you read the hired IVN promoters sugesting
that if investing in IVN is good for EIKE
the world's richest mining billionaire
...it must be good for you ?
looooool
His company’s implosion led to his ejection this year from the Forbes’
billionaires list.
He was once Brazil’s richest man with a fortune of more than $30bn
THE MOST SPECTACULAR CRASH OF MINING FORTUNES
Entire $ 30 b paper wealth ( once world's 7 richest) erased
geeeeeesus
EVEN MORE NOTORIOUS ,FLAMOYAND PRINCLING THAN RF
Born into mining as son of a CEO of iron giant Vale
Eike led the playboy lifestyle, dropping out of engineering school, marrying a nude model ect.
Ever the consummate salesman, Batista famously sold Minas Rio to Anglo-American in 2008,
pocketing $5.5bn and getting rid of what has become
Anglo’s biggest asset write-off on record.- $ 4 b
( Hallo INCO , HALLO RIO )
Na... that's a legend and Midas touch .. to sgueeze the pig
for $ 4b over profitability price of $ 1.5 b
geeeeesus
TODAY'S equivalent of 18-Y OLD RF Voices Bay " legend "
Cindy Carroll Anglo CEO said , she is proud of Minas-Rio..money well spend
Next thing... Anglo ( bound to dress it's wounds for years to come )
spent her as CEO .loool
His OGX was the hottest public offering in the Americas
His fortune topped out at a spectacular $32.8bn in April last year\
after his OGX struck oil (turns out not very much.. investors suing
him for falsyfying the drill results )
Brazil’s SEC, known as CVM, is looking into violations of disclosure rules.
Batista had estimated as much as 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent
OGX ended up tapping dry wells, GEEEESUS
Caught in a vicious downward spiral now , that the wells have run dry.
and his silver tongue is worth nothing now
RF'S SILVER TONGUE IS WORTH ABOUT THE SAME NOW
OGX cut by 100 $ 24 TO 24 C =bankrupt AND DELISTED=ZERO
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OGXP3.SA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Has 9 days to pay its share of development costs,or will lose the
oil licence stake.The only thing worth something left from his empire
Filed Latin America's largest-ever bankruptcy protection petition on Oct. 30,
After restructuring ,his stake in OGX will be worth $ 35 m ,if lucky.
loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool
When Brazilian oil firm OGX tried to tap bond markets for $2 billion
in 2011, investors were ready to hand it $5.5 billion.
Two years on, OGX is in default and the debt trades at
less than 10 cents of its original face value.
The 8.5 percent coupon paid by OGX persuaded buyers
to overlook the fact it was yet to generate any revenues ..
HALLO IVN
Sister company OSX, which is sitting on $2.4 billion in debt,
has thin cash balances and is reportedly the next domino to fall.
HALLO IVN
His Brazilian blowout cost investors $3.6 billion, with California
based PIMCO and BlackRock being the biggest foreign holders of OGX debt.
Total debt worth 11.2 billion reais, or about $5.11 billion
.
WELL. RIO AND RF ARE NOT AS STUPID ... THEY INVENTED RIGTS OFFERING
TO DUMP TRQ $2.4 B DEBT ON SUCKERS LOOOOOOOOOOOOL
geeeeeesus
Eike,in RF style , said, he will be the richest man in world
leaving Warren Buffett in the dust.
Now praying he will not end up in jail .
His OVERLEVERAGED WITH NO REAL EQUITY LEFT, PYRAMID
croumbled like house of cards.
Looks like Brazil Madoff's equivalent or BrE-X salting of drill cores.
His five public firms run out of capex funds and creditors start making collateral calls.
IVN DID NOT RUN OUT OF CAPEX FUNDS ( THAT LITTLE MULTI-BILLION
NUANCE IS 5-10Y FROM NOW )
IVN JUST RUN OUT OF WORKING CAPITAL
AND WILL RUN OUT AGAIN IN FEW MONTHS
Fire sales of assets = sold off most of his significant interests in the
other listed companies in his empire, TO SAVE HIS CRWN JEVEL OGX
IN WHICH HE WILL RETAIN $ 35M ..IF AT AL ....LOOOOL
SOLD OFF -INCLUDING HIS STAKE IN IVN
=========================
#9 Vladimir Lisin $ 14b minus $2 b again = $12b
owns Russia's third largest iron ore mine ,his Novolipetsk Steel
has wiped out $10 billion of Lisin’s wealth since 2011
# 33 Gautam Adani $3bn.by now likely $ 1.5 b
he oversees the $7bn Adani Enterprises’s coal mines in Australia and Indonesia
Powerless to stop the slide in his fortune
Losing two-thirds of his wealth in two years..same as RF.
#.37 Vladimir Kim $ 2-3bn Kazakhmys shares have been decimated
over the last year after a writedown of $2bn in the value of its 26% stake in fellow Kazahk miner ENRC.
# 45Igor Zyuzin $1-2bn
two years ago Zyuzin was still worth $9bn, but .. same-o same-o story
NO # Kentucky coal baron Joseph Craft III fell out of the rich list this year.
#1 FCX the biggest CU Au miner fore-seeing the winds of history
moved into oil .
On the other hand ,RF move into oil is COMPLETE DISASTER
# 44 Low Tuck Kwong $1-2bn Friedlands buddy in Singapore
Indonesia coal Bayan Resources cut like RF by 3
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BYAN.JK&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
==============
C. WHAT ABOUT THE HUMAN FACE OF BILLIONAIRES VS BOB'S FACE
( have no idea why Bob's face evokes in my mind VP Cheny face )
This Holiday Season, Seven Billionaires Join Expanding Giving Pledge Club
https://givingpledge.org/
In its fourth year, the Giving Pledge now has 122 signatories
(including three deceased, Ted Forstmann, Peter Lewis and George Mitchell)
, all of whom have committed at least half of their wealth to charitable
organizations of their choice.
That includes people from 12 countries including its first ever from Indonesia.
Besides Bill Gates, eBay founder Pierre Omidyar , Michael Bloomberg
Home Depot co-founder Bernard Marcus, Warren Buffet ,
The co-founder of airport stores Duty-Free Shoppers Chuck Feeney
Media mogul Ted Turner, Hedge fund manager John Arnold,
Director and producer George Lucas, Texas oil and gas magnate
T. Boone Pickens, Russia’s Yuri Milner ,Silicon Valley investor
Beth and Seth Klarman (Massachusetts, hedge fund manager)
, Liz and Eric Lefkofsky (Illinois, Groupon’s CEO
Richard Edwin and Nancy Peery Marriott HOTELS (Maryland)
there is few mining billionaires .
1. # 3 Australian Iron magnate Gina Rinehart $17bn-$18bn
3-rd place on 2013 mining billionaires list
By now her wealth shrank 3.4 B = 15.5 B NOW
2. # 8 Vladimir Potanin $14bn shrinking rapidly
owns 28% of Norilsk Nickel, top nickel and palladium miner, Took it on upon himself
to finance the $2.2bn ski-resort for Russia’s hosting of the 2014 Sochi Olympics
3. # 25 Andrew Forrest $5-6bn Fortescue Metals (FMG)= iron ore
FMG prospects not good -debt laden and prices down.
4, # 32 Patrice Motsepe $3bn empowered himself and workers
African Rainbow Minerals Pioneered concept of profit-sharing
with ordinary miner workers at ARM which has interests in platinum,
nickel, chrome, iron ore, manganese, coal, copper and gold
and a partnership with Harmony Gold which he chairs
pledge to give away half his fortune to charity
5. # 28 Victor Rashnikov $4bn
down 80% since 2011 but could go lower still.
He has been ploughing back the money building hospitals,
a cathedral and ski resorts and staging the country’s biggest fireworks show
in Magnitogorsk every July 18,
.