Ivanhoe Mines 2.0 vs Ivanhoe Mines 1.0 (TRQ now)
Ivanhoe Mines 2.0 vs Ivanhoe Mines 1.0 (TRQ now)
TOGETHER WITH THIS POST
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ivn/ivanhoe-mines-limited?postid=22652287
THIS IS THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE AND IN DEPTH WRITEUP ON
--IVN 1.0 ,
-- IVN 2.0
--HISTORY OF INVESTING practices IN SUB -SAHARAN AFRICA
--PRESENT AND FUTURE OF METALS MARKET
YOU WILL e v e r read .
ENJOY and COPY them BEFORE SOME LITIGIOUS PERSONS
HATING THE TRUTH WILL SHUT ME UP.
YOU SUPPOSED TO HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT ANY OF THIS
A . HOW THE RESOURCE INVESTOR UNDERESTIMATES THE IMORTANCE OF CAPEX
DURING EARLY PUMP OF RESOURCE STOCKS .
(the retail bagholder acts as there is no capex involved at all -
just the $ gazillions in ground transformed magically into his bank account
LOOOOOL GEEEEEEEESUS )
If you are happy to pay $ 1 b for IVN resource in ground , you shall be
EXTATIC to get FOR FREE $$ qudrillions gazilllions of free
NEVER DEPLETING ( 10 billion years Life of Mine equivalent )
energy resource in the air.
That free resource is solar energy...yet it is not economical
( without subsidies or new magic technology)
BECAUSE OF TOO HIGH CAPEX .
1 The final cost of a mine consists of 2 elements
-- the cost of the deposit ( property/lot under the house - in case of solar energy -FREE)
--the capex to build the mine (construction of house +infrastructure)
2. There is THOUSANDS of FOR-RUNNING the real few big miners
SPECULATORS = EXPLORERS = FLIPPERS ,WHO WANT TO JACK -UP
THE PROPERTY PRICE AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE .
THERE IS JUST HANDFULL OF BIG MINERS WITH THE MONEY AND RESOURCES
3 ONCE EVERY 30 Y OR SO THERE IS COMMODITY BULL LASTING 10-Y OR SO
During that time the big miners are overpaying for the properies by several times
Meanwhile rising commodity prices hit them back with exploding capex costs.
Double whammy , they end up facing several times to high prices for both:
the property and capex .
Rendering the projects UNECONOMICAL AND THREATENING
THE SURVIVAL OF OVER LEVERAGED MAJORS THJEMSELVES .
4. When commodity prices stoped rising .,( yet alone began to fall )
following China GDP growth rates slashed so far by 50% ( from 15% to 7%)
the musical chairs game stopped --= next 20-30 years bear market started.
That happened in 2011, supercharged later by most of
WS firms liquidation of commodity trading units= tools which
by just pure speculation rised prices 50% above the long term
fundamental prices dictated BY SUPPLY -DEMAND and marginal cost.
Second speculative shoe contributing to too high prices is dropping as we speak -
The China PONZI commodity financing scam so, metals meltdown to continue .
BTW. what happened to theory
: commodities as alternative investment asset class ?? LOL .
.they will return to it 20 Y from now LOL
15 y of miners mizery to go geeeesus
more here
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22001899
5. THE COUPLE OF $$ HUNDRED OF BILLION OF OVERPAID BY MAJOR's PROPERTIES
GOT WRITTEN DOWN ( more to come ) ,THE TENS OF BIG PROJECTS and
hundreds of small ones got mothballed ,curtailed , many are for sale at fire -sale prices ,
( see IVN 1.0 --- SGQ- once a multi-billion cap co for sale @ $ 100-200m
= about 10c on $1 of previous short lived "glory ") geeesus
future capex slashed by tens of $ billions SO FAR.
700 of Vancouver explorets run to the ground SO FAR
..the rest hanging there by fingernails .
Now the smooth talking Execs have to either
--get real jobs ,( not likely- they will never give up the luxurious ,
high -rollers lifestyle of pump and dump some / any paper )
--or enjoy the loot if they managed to detach enough $$
from the bagholders before crash .
--or turn the co towards latest fad or scam IE marihuana stocks
-- or do 2 things Bob did
* diversify away from mining - Ivanhoe Pictures
*go back to square one and start selling a penny stock
where the only factor supporting the SP is
MASTERFULLY ORCHESTRATED SUSPENSE
and where $ 1 k a day in trading money can swing the SP by 20%
ADDING OR SUBTRACTING TO VIRTULAL BOB'S PAPER WEALTH $$ 10-15 m
geeeesus
ALL THAT TRANSLATED TO HUNDREDS OF $ BILLION LOSES TO INVESTORS
COUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN WHEN THE MUSIC STOPPED .
6 . MOST OF THEIR ( biggest in world LOOOL ) PROPERTIES ARE PRACTICALLY
WORTH z e r o. ( see point B )
Despite spending on then tens and in case of IVN 2.0 hundreds of $ millions.
And in case of IVN 1.0 = $ billions LOOOOOOOL ``
THE MARKET FOR THEM IS ALMOST NON- EXISTENT,( BOB IS LOOKING FOR
""ALTERNATIVES " LOL FOR LONG WHILE NOW )
especially ` for `the biggest in world ones LOL
Some rare exceptions nothwithstanding IE some Japaneese
or Chineese sucker late to game NOTE 1 tempted to overpay
for VERY EARLY AND VERY GREEN, economically unproven
( NO ACCEPTABLE BANKABLE FS ) project ..... note 2
, instead of buying the multitude of TURN_KEY or late stage projects
ON FIRE-SALE now . geeeesus
Or even greater multitude of projects EAGER to accept
PRETTY UNFAVOURABLE JV TERMS in exchange for a lifeline .
( hallo IVN )
Most majors are loaded up with reserves lasting for tens of years
- They do not need to OVERSPEND on new ones anymore .
...for next many years
AFTER 10 Y OF DRUNKEN BUYING BINGE , MANY OF THE DRUNKEN CEO`s
OF MAJORS were send to rehab , replaced by new ,penny pinching CEOs
who will be licking writedowns wounds for many Y to come .
LIQUIDITY/MONEY WILLING TO TAKE THE ENORMOUS RISK
EVAPORATED geeeesus ...note 3
==============
B .Let's ilustrate that with examples of IVN 1.0 ( TRQ) and IVN 2.0
1. TRQ cap is now around the $ 6.5 b of capex money spent so far
That means the property is valued at ZERO. ZIP LOL
Despite valuing in the SP the $ gazillions in ground at ZERO
TRQ IS STILL 7 TIMES OVERVALUED vs 2015 5c EPS est
( much lower than arificially pumped up 2014 EPS )
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TRQ+Analyst+Estimates
Looks like TRQ is trading at 2015 P/E 70 LOOOOOL
Trading TRQ at same P/E as RIO's 10 = 50 c SP target and $ 1 b cap
geeeesus
BOB ATTEMPTED TO VALUE IVN 2.0 = 3 GREEN LEMONS
A MILE UNDERGROUND AT $ 6 B
--WHILE HIS PREVIOUS IVN 1.0 = WORKING MINE now ( , biggest in world too LOL )
-- AFTER 15 Y OF STRUGGLE and $ billions overspend vs FS / PEA capex propnise )
-- GENERATING $ 100M EARNINGS ( $ 100 m is nothing vs overpriced cap/ SP -
but $ 100m nontheless- ...that kind of money IVN 2.0 will not see in next 10 Y if ever )
----IS (OVER) PRICED AT $ 6- 7 B !!!!!!
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
The real value of TRQ ,based on EPS is $ 1 b, while IVN 2.0
just the properties in need of $10b capex ( likely $ 20 b when all said and done )
is valued at 0.85 b ? geeeeeesus
And will be valued at ZERO as TRQ is - when in production.
So , how much investors paid for the TRQ properties .?
TRQ as IVN now was loaded then with 4 other smoke and mirror
properties spun into separate cos with Bob's controlling stakes
and sold or for sale now at cheap prices ( I guess no more than $ 800m
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22042993
RIO cost of 51% stake in TRQ was $ 6.7 b ( now whole TRQ is $ 6.7 b LOL
reminds me of Japanese and Platreef lol )
So, all investors cost of property was $ 13 b
But both RIO and investors bought stakes over many years
at different stages of capex expenditure
Say aver capex invested during TRQ creeping take over was $ 2 b
Plus sale of satelite companies generated $ 1b
THE COST OF PURE PROPERTY ex capex and satelite cos
was $ 10b
With capex so far $ 16.5 b
investors lost on IVN 1.0 COOL $ 10B
GEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS ...WHERE ARE YOU?
NOW THE $10 B JUST PROPERTY IS WORTH ZERO
Same will happen to IVN 2.0
The lot was 2 times more expensive than the biggest in world lol
"house" build on that lot
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22008048
Now IVN 2.0 "lot" is valued at just $ 850m
Looks like the 3 lemons combined are as big as TRQ property
= similar number of $ gazillions in ground but the investors burned badly
in previous years "lot" deals are now valuing IVN 2.0 at 10 TIMES LOWER
the TRQ lot
geeesus different times .. hype don't work anymore . eh ?
IVN 1.0 dilution from a stage IVN 2.0 is now was about 600%
SO, LOOKS LIKE 5 BILLION SHARES Target for IVN 2.0-- 10 y from now
And the brokers target $ 3.5 adjusted for that dilution = 60 c. LOL
If the $ 1.85 warrants will expire worthless maybe just 4 b sh LOL
IVN 1.0 at the stage IVN 2.0 is now had like 1/2 or even 1/3 the number of shares
Yet TRQ SP crashed anyway on the good news of starting production. LOL
================
C . CONCLUSION
IVN 2.0 IN ORDER TO GET TO PRODUCTION NEEDS TO SCREW up INVESTORS
FOR $ 6 - 10 b OVER NEXT 10 Y .if 100% cost will be soothly transfered on to equity bagholders like in TRQ case .
THERE IS NO OTHER WAY AROUND IT.
HISTORY OF IVN 1.0 AND MANY IF NOT MOST LATEST BIG PROJECTS
PROVE THAT BEYOND ANY DOUBT .
THE VANCOUVER MIND GAMES OF PRICING OF GAZILLIONS IN GROUND
IS COMPLETELY DETATHED FROM R E A L PROFITABILITY and IRR METRICS
LATER- WHEN IN PRODUCTION
THE $ BILLIONS GAP BETWEEN FAIRY TALES AND REALITY LATER
MUST BE FILLED BY SOMEBODY
YOU AND JAPANESE SUCKERS FILLED FIRST $ 1 B TRANCHE OF THAT GAP
SO FAR
LOOKING FOR NEXT AND MORE SUCKERS WILLING TO LOSE ANOTHER $ 5- 9 B
ANYBODY OUT THERE ?
...HERE... GRAB THE GLOISSY PRESENTATION AND SAY "WOW"
KEEEP FILLING UP THE GAP , CARRY -ON lol -- THE NON- EXISTENT YET
PITS AND HOLES IN THE SHAKY SA & DRC GROUND ARE BOTTOMLESS .
ACCORDING TO IVN 1.0 CHART , IVN 2.0 WILL BE IN PRODUCTION
WHEN SP WILL GET- CUT BY 9 TIMES FROM TOP
THAT`S 50 -60 C AND 10 Y OF PAIN AND HOPELESS DAY-DREAMS
THAT EVERY DEAD CAT BOUNCE ON THE WAY DOWN IS T H E BOTTOM
lol
Actually, given the different times ( top of commodity histeria in IVN 1.0
vs 20 Y nuclear commodity winter now ) and overall worse metrics of IVN 2.0
the cut from IVN top can easily be 15 -20 times = 25 c by 2025
IVN 2.0 BY THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE JUST KAMOA
THE OTHER SMOKE AND MIRROR PROPERTIES
WILL LIKELY BE SOLD ( AS TRQ DID ) TO RISE SOME
INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS VS ENORMOUS NEEDS .
Alternatively , some other possible arrangements
of those 3 chairs on the Titanic ( the àlternatives ` Bob explores lol )
can be less or more painfull.
But painfull nontheless.
Happy dead cat bouncing though
==================
NOTE 1
CHINA GOLD IS REALLY FORMER BOB'S JV. JINshan Gold Mines
So . the floating for 1 y now rumors seem bit fishy - given the 1/2 arms lenght
between them .
OWNED IN 43% BY IVN 1.0 .
BOB IN NEED of throwing endless amounts of money into bottomless OYU TOLGOY pit
SOLD IT FOR $ 3.11/SH in 2010 - 2 Y before gold price top.
CGG traded paralell to gold... SP went up and down -
4 Y later trading at same price Bob sold it in 2010
Pretty rich valuation P/S 4 , P/E 21 ,2 y of negative CF,
return on assets 2%
Debt doubled in 2013 to $ 550mj, cash $ 100m , cap $ 1.24 b
invested in expansion like $ 500m yet revs stay same
and income shrinks Y/Y ... $ 57m now
Bob is burning $ 57 m in a quarter LOL
So, those guys wanna take over IVN?
Yeah , they could ....for say $ 500m in their shares
Chinese like # 8 so, 88c /sh would be lucky # LOL
CGG vs IVN is pretty strong - they did not got cut by 4
despite diluting shareholders like 100%.
One little problem remains though-
Where they gonna get $ 10 b from ?
For final Kamoa cost.?
THEY AIN'T RIO OR BHP just a atartup learning to run a mid tier mine .
- ONLY A HANDFULL OF COS ARE ABLE TO HANDLE
THE SIZE OF KAMOA CAPEX AND COMPLEXITY.
THAT LIST DO NOT INCLUDE CGG OR BOB .
Sorry , most of them have HANDS FULL of their own
$$ multi-billion projects now. and good portion of them delayed
, scaled down or completely mothballed .
Call me in 2025 LOL .
===================
.note 2
MASSAGED AND STREACHED p r e l i m i n a r y IRR of 15% was hardly acceptable
IN BULL MARKET . and is not acceptable now because
EXPERIENCE ( SEE IVN 1.0 ) SHOWS THAT SUCH IRR WILL TURN INTO
5% IRR = BELOW COS T OF CAPITAL ( equity bagholders capital is ALWAYS FREE)...lol )
or outright zero return on investment = $$ billions oF writedowns AGAIN . .
for a major who will dare to buy Kipushi or Platreef ......geeeesus
note 3
IVN 2.0 experienced first hand the liquidity crunch and investors risk aversion for overpriced exploration stocks
BOB intention was to price IVN IPO @ $ 6 b valuation ( $ 9-10 /sh ) LOOL
The first bad hit he received - got just 1/2 ( $ 4.75) of expectations
-Market did not swallow his pre - IPO hype hook
Adding insult to injury the moment the post IPO lock up expired
IVN saw nothing but 1.5 y downslide to $ 1.3
The difference betwen Bob's hype ( $ 6 B ) and reality ( $ 800m ) is STAGGERING 8 TIMES
Bob missed this time by $ 5.2 b LOOOOOOOOOOOL
geeeeeeesus
2 more bad hits followed
--so/so and in today's envinon unacceptable PEA for Kamoa
-- outright bad - totally unacceptable PEA for Platreef
In Dan the Man kingdom = Kipushi one can expect ANYTHING UNIMAGINABLE
by average decend and trusting person.
see just tip of iceberg ,horror history of Kipushi here
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ivn/ivanhoe-mines-limited?postid=22652287
Given all above the IVN future SP is pretty obwious ..isn't it ?
=============
BONIS
May 08, 2007 - 01:24 PM I wrote this post on KAT board
https://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14812282&t=0&all=0&TableID=0
BILLY IS COMING ...RUN FOR THE HILLS
KAT was then near all time high at $ 27
Now it is 38 c . Those who didn't listen saw 98% of their wealth
whiped out geeeesus ,,,say a prayer for those poor ,
burned to ashes in fire of their own ignorant greed - souls
thank you.
Now , go back to your 10 Y - long prayer for your own burning now skin .
NOW i SAY : DAN IS COMING ...RUN FOR THJE HILLS
7 y ago I was as stupid as many dudes here .
I was pumping like crazy a then new DRC star ( IVN equivalent now ) - KAT
When local and international vultures ( including Gecamines boses
and the biggest commodity vulture in world - GLEN )
saw the money KAT could generate ,
the death sentence for KAT was written.by them.
Thousands of pages wouldn't describe the rides, the conspiracies , the criminal actions
the stripping and flipping the financial scams and frauds surrounding KAT .as well as many other cos.in DRC.
And that was just a Monday in DRC business practices callendar LOL
Same happened to AFR - in limbo , zombie land now
frozen like a deer in Dan's headlights. for years now
( that was just Tuesday in Dan;s business callendar )
AFR execs don.t dare or don't care or don't have the money or reasons
to go to DRC for years ( somebody called us that artisan miners
descended on our mine and are strippoing everything in sight
....ouch . what we gonna do ?... lets keep issuing regular PR and Q reprts
as usual LOOL so, the UNREAL SP of a zombie flucuates )
Same happened to FM - fortunatelly they were big enough to sue
( of course not in DRC courts ,they swear never to tuoch anythng DRC )
and to get $ 1b compensation for Dan's ride , strip and flip.
( that was Wendesday in Dan's business callendar )
Well, IVN made it's way to Dan's business callendar now ,
Either you will have to buy his and many others "Protection"
or be dammed .
(rumors say, the price to get 0.5 hr audience or signature of a DRC minister
is a 5 digit number - those guys EACH apparently make 10- times
the income of President of USA geeesus LOL )
in which case many PP will be needed LOL or earnings will be
suspiciously low like in case of KAT)
Bob is a hawk in his own right WITH HUGE EXPERIENCE IN THE
MOST CORRUPT COUTRIES ON EARTH .
So, maybe he will be able to put up a fight .
In that case wait for the sequel to " THE WILD GEESE " movie
entitled "THE BATTLE OF HAWKS AND VULTURES "
i PLACE MY BETS ON VULTURES - THEY ALWAYS WON IN LAST 20 y OF DRC HISTORY.
==========
DISCLAIMER
RF or RMF = Robert Martin Friedland
This is just crude introduction , scraching just the top of the iceberg
Numbers are aporoximate and subject to future corrections /details.
To reduce the number of the many assumptions and to paint detailed story
one needs months of investigative journalism and army of foresenic accountants
Wich is beyound scope of this - our opinion only - introduction.
We claim safe harbour and claim the right to use as colorful
exxuberant phrases as RFM .
Some quoted facts and statements are taken at face value
Authors of those publications ( as well as we ) could have gotten them
in various degrees on rigth- wrong scale .
Most of our text is just copy and paste of easy avaliable
stuff on the Internet.
.Our role is just to organise it, connect the dots
discover the bigger picture, and draw the conclusions.
With an attempt to look at the RF story beyond smoke and mirror ,
BS, hype ,and " legend".
At any given time we may be short or long or both the various RF companies .