RE:RE:More readable version...xbox360 wrote: OK, ocean. I do not disagree to anything you've posted. You are indeed correct.
So, if we are correct: why was kamoa deal delayed? It looks Congo should be very interested in the deal and zijin should try to get it done asap so ivanhoe doesn't back out from such great deal for zijin.
Look at zijin's announcement and their filings. They have stated that none of Congo's ministries or ministers should reject for the deal to go through, which is quite different from Ivanhoe's stance. do you know how Chinese people work? they could easily get their government to disapprove the deal if they wanted to, which was one of the conditions of the deal.
Anyway, not sure if you understand but I'm not arguing against you. I'm arguing a different thing. I do agree with all you are saying.
I do not understand the delay when Freidland is said to stated a week before july 31 that the deal is 99% complete. you can state all the good things but why was the deal delayed without much information on the reason for the delay.
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I'm not quite sure what you're asking - Kamoa deal is delayed because Congo wants thier 15% for cheap under new mining law terms - IVN wants the original 15% deal. (If that was what you were asking??)
What i'm arguing is there is a path to negotiation. Both DRC and IVN lose if they can't close this. DRC wants the political win...IVN just wants to move on.
What is uncertain at the moment is timeline. My bet is this gets resolved by year end - however, Congo knows they have time on thier side and the longer they drag this out - the stonger thier negotiating power. Friedland said it was 99% complete because the CEO submitted the proposals on thier June 3rd trip and I suspect from Friedland's perspective - they felt it was a great deal - perhaps Congo thinks otherwise.
In the meantime, the market may push this even further down with the uncertainty hanging over IVN's head. If Friedland decides to throw in the towel and give DRC what they want - it gets resolved quickly. If he goes back and forth with DRC trying to get the best deal - this will drag out for a while.
I think its really important to stress at this point - this is a 4-5 year HOLD at these prices. It's pointless trying to trade this stock since all commodities are under a cloud of uncertainty. If you think this will be up 400% in 5 years - then everything in the short term is inconsequential (if you feel things will get resolved which i'm sure they will - friedland has 25% of his net worth at stake - he's not going to let that tank).
So - i've placed my bet - wil hold until 2020.....there is no point watching it everyday - you will go crazy if you do.