Kabila confirms elections will be held...but when?I've always felt the biggest issue with IVN stock is the jurisdiction that Komoa and Kipushi are in. The Democratic Republic of Congo. A bad jurisdiction. Wicked size and grade values can become meaningless if the mining license is revoked and the mine is expropriated by the government. Many posts on this board however correctly point out that the development of the mines is in the governments best interest and it has to partner with western companies in order to move forward. So, I've always felt to the extent the government acts rationally, it will positively influence IVN stock price. To the extent it acts as Congo has in the past, which is bad, it will affect IVN negatively. Thus, the question is what is the government doing and will it transition a new government peacefully through elections scheduled in November? To me it's controversial because if constitutional law is ignored then so too will the property rights of the private investor. Actions always speak louder than words so with the Congo being so corrupt and having a history of bad decisions, great care must be taken with investments in the region. One ought to watch what the government is doing, not so much what the government is saying in order to be a successful.
Significant news came from Joseph Kabila, President of DRC, late last week - he finally confirmed that elections will be held. He said they are in the process of registering voters. He has mentioned in the past that elections must be credible and with the country being so underdeveloped this presents challenges. Opposition leaders claim he's stalling and just wants to stay in power. The USA imposed targeted sanctions against DRC officials (namely Kabilas chief of police) very recently and is demanding that elections be held on schedule (November). EU officials are less hawkish calling for emergency dialogue on the topic of elections.
What's he going to do!? What's he going to do!? OK, so Kabila has finally confirmed that once the registry is complete an election will be held. (He never mentioned this in the past) The DRC has also, very recently, hired a well known Dutch firm, Gemalto, to assist with the registry.
https://www.africanews.com/2016/08/05/kabila-finally-speaks-on-drc-polls-says-it-will-depend-on-availability-of/
heres the the press release from Gemalto announcing their contract:
https://www.gemalto.com/press/Pages/The-Democratic-Republic-of-Congo-selects-Gemalto-mobile-biometric-enrollment-solution-to-support-fair-elections.aspx
In my opinion, this is positive news. Really good in fact. If elections are not held, then the Congo moves backward and IVN will remain discounted because it's deposits are located in a dysfunctional jurisdiction. But these press releases confirm Kabila is taking action to setup the election. One could argue "why didn't he take steps to finalize the registry earlier in his mandate so elections could be held on time?". There is no perfect answer, but at the end of the day a late election is better than no election. And a modern registry based on biometrics technology from a leading EU firm is impressive.
I'm continuing to accumulate shares. RF is going to announce a financing partner sooner or later and once he does, the days of IVN trading at around a buck will be history. Overnight the shares will be re-priced at the new partners buy in price. Sure there are risks, but if you ask me, DRC will hold elections a little late, IVN will announce partner(s) and we instantly correct higher and continue to methodically march up.
My long term crystal ball prediction: Kabila will live abroad (maybe France?) for 5 years and return, run again in DRC elections and be welcomed back as a hero. Mining sentiment will return to favour, global metal prices will be higher, Africa will be the fastest growing economy worldwide on percentage terms and IVN will be perfectly positioned for the 2020's.
Good luck, watch the news and stay disciplined!