Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. T.IVN

tuesday's presentation

[retool]

I had a long drive today and listened to the presentation twice. Then I listened to the RF ''rant'' about NPV two more  times.Here's my 2-cent analysis of what I think is going on:

- In my 6 or 7 years of owning IVN, I've listened to maybe 100 RF interviews and presentations. Other than one or two sentence back hand snarly comments about the 20-something year old bankers he used to have to make elevator pitches to, I never heard him so heated as on this presentation

- if you use an NPV 0 instead of NPV 8 or 10, and depending on how far in time you have the cojones to take the analysis, you can easily multiply the NPV8 valuation by 5 to 10 times. So the 20B USD valuation becomes 100 to 200B USD. And we're talking only about KK, without WF, Kipushi and Platreef. Then you multiply by IVN's % ownership

- The standstill agreement between RF and the Chinese expired last month.

- KK is only part of the equation ( you have to throw back in WF, Kip and Plat), but RF is worried that if the IVN price remains in the 12-14$ range, the Chinese can take controlling interest on the cheap, say 20 to 25$ range, without RF being able to do anything about it, instead of the 80 to 100$ discounted range that RF thinks it should be at soon if  the bankers change their valuation methods.

Thus him losing his cool a little bit.

[Jacksprat3]

Could you or anyone post a link to the cnference call.  I can't find it.  Thank you.

[retool]

The link is on the IVN web site 

[Drksideofmoon]

I have the same concern about the possible control taken on the cheap however the bankers are not likely to change the way they value the company.  Possibly the best next step to address the valuation issue is to:  A) compile all the Western Forelands info and release the findings to date. Even if the blue whale has not yet been proven it sure looks like multiple K&K's

[bloomfield18]

Retool, No one uses NPV0 because the time value of money is never zero. That's why you don't hide money under your bed. NPV8 would be used for a stable business. Most mines would be NPV13 or 16, due to the risk of sudden metal price fluctuations.  There are now over 1.2 billion shares outstanding. You are proposing $80 or $100 a share, meaning the company is worth -- in your

[Muffybell1]

I tell you what bloomfield, My suggestion is that you phone the company or better yet, email RF and you can get that email from their last presentation and tell him about your npv of 13 and see what he says. If you were standing next to him when you even whispered it, I can see that backhand wind up and you flyting across the room. Please try it, and tell us the result and my bet is, I woukld not

[bloomfield18]

One addition: For this situation I'd use NPV8 or 10, not 13 or 16. Copper looks very strong going forward.

[retool]

Bloomfield, If you read my post again you will see that I am not suggesting anything. I am just ttrying to understand why RF flew off the handle as he did, in others words trying to explain his thinking. The NPV0 suggestion comes from his soliloquy, and the NPV0 calculations explain (maybe) his frustration with what he sees as gross undevaluation of IVN by bankers using metrics he

[bloomfield18]

Retool, My assumption is that RF wants the share price to go up because he owns millions of shares. That's good enough reason to get emotional. And there is no law which says a stock must conform to logical analysis, such as NPV, especially these days. Stocks will be valued according to whatever the market decides, logic be damned. So can IVN reach $80 or $100/share? Who knows? But you'll

[enero7]

Bloomfied had an pic failure a couple of years ago. At that time, He valued IVN at approx 3 bucks. Then dissapeared when share price was steadily increasing. And now, he is back with the same playbook. Being skeptical of IVN market value. Sometimes, he will play nice. Other times he is bashing. Like if price drops over 10%, he would say that something is wrong with IVN projects. he predicted

[bloomfield18]

Enero, When copper was $2 lb, then IVN was worth $3. Now copper is over $4 lb, so IVN -- a copper company -- is worth a lot more. My estimates are based on the price of copper, so now the Company is worth a lot more. That said, $100/share doesn't make sense because there are over 1.2 billion shares out and the Company owns a third of K-K. That implies a value for K-K of $300 billion, which is

[Muffybell1]

Bloomer the reason you are NOT making any future predictions is because you don't know how. You tried that BS before and FAILED MISERABLY, so best not to try at all. I know one thing for 100% certainty and that is, RF would NEVER sell IVN for 25 dollars and that was about 3 years ago. If you are dumb enough to actually think the value now is less than that, you are in the wrong place and

[Drksideofmoon]

Retool, here's why RF would be upset and why that type of valuation doesn't make sense.  Imagine if you held a magical annuity that once purchased, it's quarterly payout was indexed to and quarterly adjusted to account for inflation.  Essentially copper is adjusted to inflation and supply.  Add on that your annuity will payout for generations and the length of

[bloomfield18]

Not quite Dark Side. The copper produced 33 years from now has no value because you'll probably be dead. A dollar today is worth a lot more than the right to a dollar 33 years from now. That's the purpose of NPV (Net Present Value). NPV0 is impossible because of the time value of money. There are other factors to NPV as well, such as physical security. For example, Canada is safer than the

[waiting73]

I think this is misleading. Copper had value before DarkSide was born and will have value after DarkSide passes. The value is not destroyed, it is passed on in an estate transaction etc. I thought Darkside's explanation was pretty straightforward. I think assigning a relatively short value lifetime to a multi-decade lifetime project is misleading and the criticism is valid. NPV0 might be

[enero7]

NPV0 is just a sarcasm by RF. But the analysts cannot use the same  NPV8 or 10 on a project that is top 3 copper mine in the world. Highest copper grade than any other top tier mine, by far. Lowest Cost , by far. Greenest copper production than any other project. Their NPV models are outdated. Things evolve. Anyways, Becareful with Bloomfield. He will bash IVN share price, bash the projects

[Drksideofmoon]

He didn't waste any time engaging with me again.  He's probably shorting it again and not liking the share price holding up at this point.  As someone pointed out here that in theory there is no value at 33 years due to death, I guess that thinking totally eliminates the need for life insurance or inheritance. In other words "we are smarter than you and we use this