TA+, seasonality+mngment's Maginot Line
SEASONALITY
During Dec - March SP ALWAYS went up and ,or stayed high
Below 5 Y chart shows the SP in the period Dec - March ALWAYS hit the top of chart or moved up from the bottom
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=JE.TO&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=m50%2Cm200&a=&c=
Actually , there are 2 kinds of price action due to positive winter seasonality
When SP was on / near multi year top , the prices went only 15% up Dec - Jan - March
Dec 09 - Jan- March 2010 - up 15%
Dec 10 - March 11 - up 15%
When SP was on/ near multi - year low it went up much more
Dec 08 - Apr 09 = 100% up - outsized gains because of market crash and recovery in 09
Dec 2011 - Apr 2012 = 50 % up DESPITE WARMEST WINTER / worst seasonal factors IN HISTORY
geeesus
NOW WE ARE AT/ NEAR MULTI-YEAR LOWS
So, Dec 2012 to Jan -March 2013 shall be up by more than the minimum 15%
But that depends where the Dec low will be
Assume totally abstract move of 25% up from Dec 2012 - March 2013
Because 2 previous moves from multi- Y ( HIGHER ) lows were
-- 100% from Dec 09 and
-- 50% from higher low Dec 2011 ( see trendline analysis below )
In Oct 2012 we have the multi -Y (EACH NEXT SILL HIGHER) low -so 25% looks "fibonaci- esque "
On resistance side we have strong resistance + 200 DMA at $ 12
So, the TA target by Jan -March 2013 looks like no more than $ 12
Unless the acquisitions and cold winter will improwe earnings of course
To make my abstract 25% move, the Dec low shall be like $ 9.6 - 9.7
That's where horizontal range support is
.So , the bottom can be now at Oct 16 $ 10.35 for 17% gain till March +6% ( =6 months ) divy= 23%
Or bottom will be in Dec at $ 9.6 for 25% gain till March + 3 % ( 3 months ) divy = 28%
4 Y ASCENDING TRENDLINE SUPPORT SUGGEST BOTTOM NOW AT $ 10.35
Bit worrisome , because this ASCENDING treandline was pierced briefly
( taking out stops below) on couple of occasions lately.
If broken than horizontal support at 10 - 9.6 apply
This 5 Y charts shows also 2 conflicting trendlines
1. the ascending 4 Y trendline since Dec 08 at which bottoms and reversals occured
2 the descending trendline since Apr 2011
They form huge multi- Y triangle with apex around $ 12 and due in March
The Q is which way that triangle, suggesting $ 4- move , will be resolved
Up to $ 14 - or down to $ 6 = 2008 low ?
At $ 14 the yield would be 8.8% -= still cheap SP
+ market liquidity and sentiment can asign ANYTIME say, P/E +15 \
= SP can go to all times high in right conditions .
At $ 6 yield would be 20% - not impossible SP ( for brief period )
if 2008 -like market crash will happen .
Anyways , March 2013 looks like a pivot point from both :
TA and fundamental point of view
=========================
Mngment = the most fierce SP defendants out there
Delivering on promisses too (steady $1.24 divy FOR YEARS AND YEARS
regardless of huge SP fluctuations
, which have nothing / little to do with co specifics /preformance
1. Managemend swore $ 1.24 divy is safe till March 2013 - and I believe that
The payout ratio flucuates widly from Q to Q
Like 60% to 110% and average yearly like 90-95%
= JUST PERFECT for shareholder and still affordable by co .
2. They are the most fierce SP defendants I have EVER seen .
See the 3 instances when SP moved below $ 10
-- Oct 2011 - the alleged short ride by CEO of acquired co ( separate story -later)
Mngment issued PR affirming guidance and pointing to share manipulation
Stock reacted by moving $9.5 to $11.7 = 25% but slided back below $ 10 by Dec 2011
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=JE.TO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=m50%2Cm200&a=&c=
In that case mngment pulled out a BAZUKA of 10% bayback announcement
That moved stock up 9.8 - $ 14 = over 40% in next 5 months till Apr
( + market moved up in that period )
-- July 2012 - SP drops below $ 10 again and mngment issues AGAIN same as in Oct 2011 PR
That was good for 2 months up -move of 15% but identically as in Nov 2011,stocks slides back now towards $ 10
So, this time around (if SP moves below $ 10) I expect mngment to pull out another BAZUKA ,
Since statements and words have good but limited time/ price effect
IE. plenty / majority of baybacks still remaining
( they will not buy back the whole amount - rarely any co does )
BOTTOM LINE : SEEMS MNGMENT ACTS /. defends SP if / when it drops below $ 10
12% yeld at SP $ 10 is also quite attractive for investors
especially when co is IN BUYBACK MODE
Seasonal uptick in revenues / profits comes handy for them to do just that .
Short term chart shows also a little ascending STAIRCASE - since move back from $ 10.35=- bottom of range
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=JE.TO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m50%2Cm200&a=&c=
Short term resistances :
10.9
11.2
11.4
==================
All above corresponds nicely with SP 500 development
+ today's China data dump showing bottoming up
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31670641&l=0&r=0&s=SGQ&t=LIST
+ U.S. Economic Confidence Best Since May and rising
https://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/7zhdqmob80yuxcc23kncza.gif
The Oct 15 SP 500 commentary :
S&P 500 bounced nicely off of its 50-day moving average today.
The index is currently in a short-term downtrend that began back in mid-September
, but its long-term uptrend remains in place as well.
If the index can gain another percent or so and break this short-term downtrend,
it should be smooth sailing to new highs.
Well, SP500 did just that - 1% more and we are in 3 Y hights territory
See chart 2 days later
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
More here
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31606274&l=0&r=0&s=t.je&t=LIST
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31603271&l=0&r=0&s=t.je&t=LIST
.