RE: 8% yeld = $ 10.5 target
Strong momentum continues
May 16 1.75 M sh on US side = 4 x aver vol
+ 1.89 M vol on CAN side = 3.3 x aver vol
Total May 16 = 3.6 m sh x $ 6.5 = 23m $ changed hands .
May 17 = 1.76 M on CAD side = 3 x aver vol;
+ 1. 65 m sh on US side = 2.2 x aver vol ( while aver vol rose a lot )
Total May 17 =3.4 m sh x $ 7 = = 25 m $ changed hands
TOTAL MAY 16 AND 17 = 20% SP up , 7 m sh vol = $ 50m turnover
Plenty 1 minute vol sticks of 20k sh on both exchanges = 40k sh
= $ 300 k jumping- in per 1 min .
Predicted yesterday here
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32577917&l=0&r=0&s=je&t=list
level of $ 7.55 reached faster than I can formulate next target up
Predicted consolidation at $7.6- 7.8 shall last no more than 3 weeks
and next step shall be closing the gap at 9.9
Another 28% up
That will be well above 200 EMA at CAD $ 8.7 and SMA at CAD 9
Meaning bull territory .
If the momentum will stay there it can get to $ 10 faster than 3 weeks
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CORRECTION TO MY PREVIOUS EST OF FY 2014 DIVY PAYOUT AMOUNT.
I MADE MISTAKE BY ASSUMING 2014 PAYOUT WILL BE SAME AS 2013 =
$ 180M
WRONG : DUE TO DIVY REDUCTION IT WILL BE $ 120 M AND LESS THAN $ 100M IN CASH ( + $20M IN DRIPP SHARES)
That compares to past 2013 FFO of $90 m
Meaning they must grow FFO in 2014 by at least $10m to get below 100% payout ratio.
My simple extrapolation of last Q ( not the best ) results shows possibility of 19% growth of FFO.
So , payout ratio is bit streached but divy looks safe for at least 1 y
Even if they won't grow FFO at all , or won't grow it by 19%
they can afford temporary 105 -110 % payout till FFO improves
... If they did afford ratio of 184% in last Y , temporary 110% is doable .
in last Q they were short by like $ 14 m becaue of ONE TIME or NON- CASH charges arrising from NON- CORE operations
Like virtual , non cash US$ hedge of $ 3m - they didn't lose a penny because they did not convert USD to CAD ( but for accounting purposes they must have )= they spend USD on growing US business.
Besides that, USD is advancing pretty hard lately vs CAD and in next Q they will record here a gain of easy $ 5m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UUP&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=FXC
Another one time item was $ 8m weather hedge - 1 y delayed loses from 2012 warm winter
So, due to funny time shifting they practice ,
the benefits of cold FEB - APR 2013 will show up by the end of 2013 .
The cost cuttiung and reversal of the above charges will easy produce the $ 10-15 m they need , to get below 100% payout
Even if core revenues and profits will not grow in 2014 at all.
Above correction and more detailed look shows JE situation is less rosy
than I painted in previous post = there are some execution risk of getting out of the woods
But the odds are still higher - they will get there , vs failure .
After all , $ 10 m this or that way for a co with $ 2.5 b revenues is not big deal.
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Selling this money losing Ethanol plant , even for less than the debt on it
will reduce JE debt by like $ 60m , improve profits , contribute to long term strenght.
Though will lower ( unprofitable ) revenues and create 1 time charge
Wanna turn this plant into gold mine ?
Establish subsidiary " JUST VODKA"
Bottle this ethanol and sell it in liquer stores.
I will gladly accept a barrel of rye @ $ 5 per 1 liter ( = 500% profits for JE )
in lieu of divy .
Wanna double number of custoers every year ?
What about a gallon or 2 of vodka as a signing bonus for new / renewing customers ?
Or each new installed water tank filled -up initially with vodka ?
Wow ... where do I sign up ?
Good product , wrong application / market.
Open the spigot , turn DRIPP into FLOW ( of vodka ) ...LOL
.