OTCPK:JENGQ - Post by User
Comment by
GEEEon Jan 21, 2014 8:53am
193 Views
Post# 22114652
RE:Cold = bonanza for NG supply chain
RE:Cold = bonanza for NG supply chain
big correction
when calculating the example of people in Maine
who hedged with JE at top of NG prices in 2007
all their " gains " should be "loses" and vice versa
the correct part below
Take IE Maine from above table
2007 lock up at $16.90 ( NG price = $ 10)
2008=17.47 = relative gain 57 c ( NG price = $8 to 12 )
2009 = 16.43 = loss 47 c ( NG price = $ 8 to 7 )
2010= 14.14 = loss $ 2.76 ( NG price = $ 7 to 6 )
2011= 14.20 = loss$ 2.70 ( NG price = $ 6 to 4 )
2012 = 15.94 = loss 96 c ( NG price = $ 4 = bottom)
2013 looks like aver 16 = 90 c loss ( NG price = $ 4.8 -- 3.6= second bottom -- 4.4 )
LOOKS 3 TIMES CUT IN NG PRICE DID NOT CAUSE RELATIVE 3 x LOSES
FOR PEOPLE WHO LOCKED UP WITH JE AT THE TOP
IN CASE OF MAINE ( OTHER MARKETS DIFFER BUT NOT THAT MUCH )
- THEY PAID IN AVER 10-15 % more
during those 5 Y THAN IF THEY WOULDN'T HEDGE .
But 1 week like this one when burning is 2-3 times aver and
floating price jumped 400% up will reduce their
aver yearly loses big time
Such 1 week at floating price equals 10 weeks= 2.5 months
of aver yearly cost;