Just Energy asymetry - big winers , small losers
Just Energy asymetry - big winers , small losers
A. Most of LONG TERM SHAREHOLDERS ( like Joyce ) DIDN`T LOSE MONEY
E V R E R ON JE
1.,JE PAID IN DIVY OVER THE YEARS TILL NOW AROUND $ 15.5 /SH
to $ 16 with the special distributions from time to time.
2.6 times the SP now and over $ 1.5 b into people's pockets ...geeesus
2 THAT $ 15.5/sh TURNED INTO $ 18, EVEN IF KEPT IN 2% SAVING ACC. OVER LAST 14 Y
3. THE BIGGEST WINNERS ARE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT JE @ $3 IN 2001
AND HELD IT FOR 14 Y
THEY MADE 800% = $ 24 ( $ 18 in reinvested divy + $ 6 SP)
in 14 Y = 52% per aver y
GEEESUS
3, THE WORST CASE SHAREHOLDER
-- bought at very top in 2005 at $ 20 ,
-- collected 9 y divy say , $ 10 ( go, calculate exact # ,if you want )
Which in bank account turned into $ 12 over 9 y
Reducing the cost to $ 8
PPS now $ 6 .2
Loss $1.8= 25% + OF COURSE TIME .
PLUG HIS 9 Y DIVY BACK INTO SP
AND FOR THE GUY WHO BOUGHT AT $ 20 IN 2005
THE SP TANKED JUST TO $ 15 EQUIVALENT
GEEESUS .
That's the beauty of divy PAYING STOCKS vs IE. some mining scams .
It CUSHIONED THE SP 3 TIMES CUT TO JUST 25% LOSS
At $ 8 EVEN THE BIGGEST SUCKER BUYING ON ALL TIME TOP
WILL BE EVEN LOL
B. MORE DETAILED LOOK AT JE WINNERS AND LOSERS
Let's forget the winners = the very long term buy - and - holders
Let's focus on BAD things = the 9 Y JE SP ( not adjusted for divy ) slide
Methodology
Calculate the total reinvested return of 10 different shareholders who
bought at subsequent tops and bottoms after all time high in 2005 and held JE till now
1. 2006 bottom at $ 13
2. 2007 top @ $ 17
3. 2009 bottom at $ 6 ( whole market crash )
4. 2010 top @ $ 14
5. 2010 bottom @ $ 12.5
6. 2011 top @ $ 15.7
7. 2011 bottom @ $ 9.5
8. 2012 top @$ 14
9 2013 bottom @$ 6
10. 2014 top @$ 9
This exercise can be eye opener but I won't do it
= too much work (pick up the train of tought if you wish )
Take the # 2 = second worst sucker who bought at $ 17 top in fall of 2007
COLLECTED around $ 8 .7 in divy = say 9.5 reinvested
Cost by June 2014 = $ 7.5 = ONLY about 17% loss vs SP cut by 3 times
Take # 4 , fall 2009 low $ 6
SP same now but collected 5.4 divy = $ 6 reinvested
= 100% WINNER
TAKE # 9 the most relevant now example
HOW PEOPLE BUYING THE DIP AFTER DIVY CUT ARE DOING ?
THE ONE WHO BOUGHT AFTER first DIVY CUT NEWS IN May 2013 @ $ 6
SP now $ 6.2 + 1 Y divy 84 c = is $ 1 ahead = 16% up
EVEN AFTER SECOND DIVY CUT<....geeesus
( AND WAS 50% UP ON TOP OF POST DIVY CUT RALLY )
E ven the last week $ 5.97 dip buyers are 5% up in NO TIME
(23 c SP up + 7 c June divy )
C. Summary : there is H U G E A S Y M E T R Y betwen winners and losers
THANKS TO DIVY AND LENGHT OF TIME OF HOLDING JE.
WINNERS ARE 50%- 100%- 800% WHILE aver.LOSERS ARE JUST - 17- 25%
on THIS MULTI YEAR BOTTOM AND TA SUPPORT .
AT $ 8 THERE WILL BE NOT TOO MANY LONG TERM LOSERS IN JE
GEEEESUS
Will JE ever recover above $ 9 ?
Not likely , though what do we know ?
But at $ 9 SP, the bulk of people who in 2012 bought at $ 12
will be even by end 2014 .
Hold it for next 6 y at 50 c divy and you`ll be OK even if the SP
will get cut in half LOL
Hold it long enough and you will never lose LOL
unlike terminal loss in non-divy paying stocks
After all ,this unit sale valued JE remaining assets / business at $ 10
.
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D. Joyce` aver cost in last 1.5 Y Jan 2013 till June 2014
Jan 22 2013 bought 100k sh @ $8 = $ 800k
Feb 27 2013 bought 200k sh @ $8.5 = $ 1.7 m
Nov. 26, 2013 bought 130 k sh @ aver $7.15 = $ 930k
TOTAL $ 3.43 m for 430k sh = $ 7 .98 aver sh cost
I `m probably missing a buy or 2 ( correct me ,please)
so, say his aver cost is $ 8.05
By June 2014 when JE hit $ 6.05 he lost on paper $ 2 = 25% on say 500 k sh = $ 1m
NOT REALLY , BECAUSE HE COLLECTED LIKE $ 330 K IN DIVY IN THAT TIME
only from the shares he bouight in 2013 - not from his total JE holdings
amounting to $ 1.2 m divy
SO, HE LOST $ 670 K = JUST $ 1.4 / SH AND HIS COST AFTER DIVY IS SAY $ 6.6
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E . JUNE 2014 BUYING SPREE
06-09-14 bought 600k @ $ 6.4= $ 3.84 m
JUNE 10&11 BOUGHT 400K SH @ 6.18 aver = $ 2.47 m
TOTAL 1 M SH = $ 6.31 M = $ 6.31 C AVER SH
C. TOTAL COST JAN 2013 UP TO & INCL jUNE 11 2014 BUYING SPREE
AROUND $ 6.4
SP price now $ 6.2
By end 2014 he will collect 25 c divy and will be even if SP stays at $ 6.2
So, doubling down 1m sh at lower price than previous 500k sh
works for him
THE STOCK IS 20% BELOW HIS 2013 COST BUT AFTER DOUBLING DOWN
HE IS JUST 3% UNDERWATER TODAY AND WILL BE 50% UP BY YEAR END
O N H I S E N T I R E , ALMOST $ 17 M SH . S T A K E
= WILL BE UP BY $ 50 M if the deja vu 2013 rally will happen.
GEEESUS
Spending $ 6 m at multi- Y JE chart supprt to start another 50% J&P rally
see more here https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.je/just-energy-group-inc?postid=22643059
and make $ 50m, looks like no brainer to him
Neither to me ..... so , roll- up the rim ... Ron...to win second cup of Java LOL