I hope so.

Looking back to when the KEG unit price was really performing was the periods when same store sales (SSS) growth was robust (2013 to 2017), with figures such as 11% in 2014, 8% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016, 4.7% in 2017, and slowing to 1.5% in 2018 before going negative in 2019 at -1.3%.   While the restaurant count hasn’t really grown much (around 101 in 2011 and 107 in 2022), the impact of the growing SSS allowed the distribution to increase from a reduced $0.08 per month in 2011 (following enactment of the new taxation rules on trusts) until it reached $0.0946 per month.   Part of the reason for the slowdown in SSS in 2019 involved higher menu prices (passing on higher labour inflation due to Ontario hiking min wage) and impact of delivery services (which rolled out in earnest in 2018-2019). 

The other factor that played a roll in a weaker unit price 2018-2019 was the purchase of KRL (the operating business) by Cara, without the consolidation of Keg Royalties.  At the time, there was disappointment about both the acquiror (Cara and its array of middling brands) and what it meant for new unit growth going forward. 

Looking ahead, the only real question to me will be TRAFFIC (with higher menu prices), delivery vs sit-in dining, and the ability to generate SSS in 2022-2024.   I have no doubt the business brand remains strong, but the extent and duration of the bounce back with full reopening is an unknown to us all. 

If the market believes that Keg can start generating sustainable SSS growth going forward, then no doubt, the unit price will lift, as investors will start discounting an increased distribution or additional year end specials.  

Some have said that the spectre of higher interest rates will push dividend/distribution yields up on publicly traded equities, which I don’t disagree with, but the spread between Keg’s yield and broader market rates is already so wide that a 100bps rise in broader rates shouldn't diminish KEG/UN appeal IMO.

Good luck.