RE:Ever hear of insider trading and it's illegal? Stephen hasThe extremes are highly unlikely. Reality is probably somewhere in the middle.
Acting on inside information is a very bad idea. Gathering inside information and then going on TV to broadcast it would be an extraordinarily stupid move.
On the other had ... random guesswork in investing isn't illegal. But it's not smart either. It's not a way to build a career or track record.
But there are less radical possibilities here.
A thoughtful, plugged in investment manager watches companies carefully ... looking for clues that the company's leaders are getting impatient or a major shareholder is dreaming of cashing out and retiring.
It's about gathering clues and impressions. Watching spending patterns and listening for hints that someone wants to throttle back or spend more time doing other things.
And it's not just about individuals. The language in statements and the observed tone in corporate commentary can reveal a lot.
Maybe Stephen T has got the idea that LB's board is growing skeptical about the probability of a successful turnaround.
Or maybe there have been hints from the other side - the bidder that started this. A non specific suggestion make months ago that the leadership of financial institution X wanted to make a bold move. If you had heard that ... and later saw that LB had an unnamed bidder ... you could put two and two together and make money.
I don't have any information here. I don't know who might be bidding or whether the bank is being bowled over by a big bid or annoyed by a small one. Or any other details.
But Stephen T (based in Montreal) had the right instincts about Velan and Logistec (both based in Montreal). He might have them again about Laurentian Bank (also based in Montreal)
I think he does have some insight here. He is caculating that a deal is likely. Which is not a guarantee of anything, obviously.
But it's something more than a dart thrown at a stock chart.
Good luck to all. And I hope that one way or another we know more soon.