What's at play for LBS this weekI just looked and the yield of the dividend at this price is 18.29 percent. With the tax preferential treatment of dividends for this kind of income that is a fantastic return on investment, By the rule of 72 you get your investment back in 4 years. If this is the beginning of the return to normalcy for split shares that is as good as it gets...but that is another topic.
I want to talk about what is happening today and in the next week.
First dynamic is that it is the end of the month. Algorithms are scraping profits from anything that moved up substantially. Shorts are closing positions to cash and will start up again as the new month starts. Others are just profit taking.
The second dynamic is that Christia Freeland is giving her Economic update in a few minutes or hours from now. The whole market is holding its breath until they hear where the government is setting its economic course for the next 12 to 18 months. That is a perfect opportunity for the first dynamic to operate in. It is also standard operating procedure for Mr Market.
The most immediate item about this week that is important to LBS owners is that it is Q4 and year end earnings week for the Canadian Banks. There is a little survey on the BNN website where they asked people to rate what is the most important news to look for in these reports. Out of 4 choices 47% chose that loan loss provisions are the most important news to watch.
All of the insurance companies but more importantly all of the "near to being" banks or alternate lenders have reported. All have reported that loan books are healthy and that they have not had to dig into the higher loan loss provisions already set aside in earlier quarters. Some have even released this money back onto the positive side of the balance sheet and cash side of their reports.
If that happens with the banks, they would look at increasing dividends or buying back shares. IF THEY COULD ! However the OSFI (google it if you don't know what they do) came out last week and told banks not to spend this windfall this way. And that is probably a wise thing to do from a government perspective. Even on a business side it errs on the side of safety and the money still sits there as a cash asset instead of a liability. Once the economic picture comes clear, it will be there to allow for share buybacks or increased dividends.
This is good for both sides of Split Shares.
All of the smaller banks and alternate lenders had a nice bump (some like GSY had a really nice bump) and FN even declared as special dividend of $.50 per share.
For those who know this stuff, I think most of this is already priced in to the price of the banks and of the Split Shares. Let's see how this week plays out.
Mouserman, I saw that when I first looked at your post earlier today and did a double check. I knew you would catch it or someone would draw it to your attention.