SGY vs LEGThere is a lot of camparison between SGY and LEG. So use SGY as the benchmark for what LEG Sp would do if there were "management changes and a divy". Back of a napkin rough numbers:
SGY:
2014 year end net debt 290mm
2014 full year ffo 214mm (1.29/share)
Current NAV 8.21
Currrent SP 6.75
LEG:
Q3 2013 net debt 680mm (assume no reduction in 2014 based on budget)
2014 full year ffo 350mm (2.27/share)
Current NAV 9.83
Current SP 6.15
COMPARISON: SGY LEG DIFFERENCE
Debt/Cf 1.35 1.95 44%
Sp/Nav 0.822 0.625 31%
Sp/Cf 5.2 2.7 93%
Now here is a kind of bogus calculation but for argument sake take 93% sp/cf difference, add 31% sp/nav difference, divide by 2 to get avg of 62%. Minus debt difference of 44% and your left with 18% potential sp appreciation if LEG does what SGY did. Personally i am down more then that on this thing, the debt is whats holding it back and should be made a priority.