Much has happened... Hello all, it's been a while. I see that most of the other longs are still hanging in and now, with financing pretty much concluded, there's certainly no reason for anybody to disappear at these prices. If we'd run up to the 60-70 cents I'd been guessing we'd see around this point then maybe it would be a good time for some profit taking, but right now this is priced like a three-year old sweater in a department store. So I bought some more and am just waiting for my invitation to be on the board. Well, maybe not.
Anyway, as has been illustrated in the markets and in articles posted here, we are in an enviable position among our peers on the venture exchange. We have a great project, we have the money to develop it, and we have a take-or-pay offtake agreement so that we are assured of income for the next several years. I'm no longer making any predictions on when this realization will hit the market or what the outcome of that will be, but sooner or later, our 23 cents should be worth a fair amount more than it is now. Between then and now, maybe it will be worth still less, I can't say, but that is only an opportunity for those that have done their homework (and have some spare cash) to be rewarded further for their diligence.
Now, there are some negative notes on softening steel markets/V prices ($26/kg) but we are a low-cost producer ($14) so we should still be able to turn a profit in tough times. Not terribly worried about that once we have the financing in the bank. One question I do have is, going through the corporate presentation updated at the beginning of May, I see that Currais Novos has gone from $12M/year to $8.4M/year. I am not under the impression that tungsten prices have softened, so what is the story there? I appear to have missed that downgrade (and also any announcement of reaching full production, perhaps related). Even so, LGO's current market cap is a P/E of 15 just looking at CN. It used to be that you were buying Maracas with Campos Allegre and Northern Dancer as freebies. Now it's almost to the point that you're getting Maracas for free, too, even though it's a proven and financed mine.
In short, while I am still displeased at the continued concessions to the bigger investors, I believe that we are done with them and moving on to production. Now, all the power they afford in protecting us from hostile takeovers or low-ball bids will come in handy. So onward and upward (eventually), I don't know if the hardest times are over, but I strongly believe that the best times are not too far ahead. By the end of next year, conservatively speaking, we should be at a point where we're about to start generating 2/3 of our current market cap per year. A 15x P/E ratio THEN would put us at $1.38 assuming 900 M shares outstanding (I haven't redone the shares-out calculation yet). I don't expect to see 15x multiples any time soon but even if you have to wait 5 years that's still better than 40% returns compounded annually and I have no problem with investments of that sort.
Good luck to all, I'm not a financial expert (or I would've waited to buy at these levels), do your own DD and good to see all of you again.