Q1-21 Revenue = US$39.8M
Q2-21 Revenue = US$54.3M
Q3-21 Revenue = US$53.9
Q1+2+3 Rev = US$148M
Analyst Annual Revenue consensus = C$256.53 = US$205.2 (US$1 = C$1.25)
So Largo needs to realise US$57.2M (= 205.2 - 148) in sales in Q4 to meet the analyst annual revenue consensus.
Can they do it?
Actual Q4-21 sales volume = 2,899 T = 6.4M lbs
Let’s assume that the average sales revenue per pound for Q4 = US$8.2/lb
Estimated Q4-21 Sales Revenue = US$8.2 x 6.4M lbs = ~US$52.5M
In this scenario the estimated Y-21 revenue = US$200.5M (= 148 + 52.5) or about $5M lower than the analyst consensus of US$205.2M.
Largo must realise an average sales revenue of ~US$9.0/lb in Q4-21 to meet the analyst annual revenue consensus.