LIQUOR STORES NA LTD 4.70 PCT DEBS T.LIQ.DB.B

I'm out at $7.90

[Goldbuggy1]

As much as I wanted to find value in this company and hope to recoup some of my losses I just don't see how. I see a $6 Share price more likely than $9. The company just paid 60% of sales for that deal in New Jersey, but that is a stable and growing market. What would Albert be worth right now? Maybe 50% of sales? So at $750 M is sales 50% of that is $375 M. But the company also owes $195 M so you have to take that away first. So now you are left with $180 M. With 27.5 M Shares that is $6.54 Share. Many companies are paying 6.5% Dividends with less risk. For this company to be the same the share price would have to be $5.50. Growth with this company will be slow now until Alberta picks up. They have only actually added 6 stores since 2013 with 249 Stores then, and 255 Stores now. Royal Bank pays the same Dividend % as LIQ does now, has slow growth because of its size, but also far more secure. There P/E is 11. If you apply the same P/E Ratio to LIQ and (adjusted) Net Earning of $0.57 you end up with a share price of $6.27. Remember that high P/E Ratios are given to companies who show high growth potential. Opening 6 stores in 3 years is not high growth. Having your shares cut into half and you net earning falling from $1.08 per share in 2011 to $0.57 per share, is not high growth. Especially when you have increased your debt and also shares from a share sale, and to the tune of about $80 M. Buying into the USA Market now to diversify, is not proactive. It is reactive! They are also buying (borrowing) on a high USD. So there debt on this is also set in USD Converted to this high rate to Canadian Dollars. So what would happen when the Canadian Dollar finally gains some ground on the USD? The debt remains the same as it was borrowed in CAD but the sales and profits would drop because they would be getting less for the USD. Taken a closer look, how did they calculate having an extra $18 M form the Dividend Cut? By using $1.08/ share and then subtracting the new Dividend of $0.36 / share leaving them an extra $0.72 / share? So $0.72 x 27.5 M shares gives you $19.8 M less taxes? The trouble with this calculation is that they never made a $1.08 / share to pay the Dividend. They made $0.57 / share and even then this is adjusted. o in cash they only are saving $0.57 - $0.36 = $0.21. Take that $0.21 and x 27.5 M and you have $5.8 M. That doesn't even cover the loan interest payments, so maybe another dividend cut is on the way soon. But the way this management talks out of the side of there mouth I suppose they could say they are saving $18 M from the Dividend Cut as now they don't have to borrow $12.2 M to pay this Dividend anymore. I often wondered why the last CEO Rick Crook quit shortly after they appointed a new chairman to the board about 16 months earlier. In my view he was doing a good job and he started the expansion into the USA in both Alaska and Kentucky buying several stores in both place. I am out now as I can't stand the mismanagement of this company anymore and how volatile this stock has been. I do wish I never bought back in at $9, but it is what it is. I also don't see much growth potential here either. Even if Oil Prices recovered tomorrow it will take years for the Alberta Economy to. The only way they can expand now is if they borrow more money which so far has not paid off for them. But then when you got a CEO with the whole world falling down around him, and all he can think of is hiring more executives and where he is going to borrow the money to paint more shops in Alberta, what can you expect. I wish you all good luck.

[patenright111]

fair enough goldbuggy, just no crying when this 12 in 1-2 years. also, you need to educate yourself. cashflow is different than earnings. cashflow was $1.13 /shr in 2015 and with divvie now at $.36, yes company does have an extra $0.77/shr of cashflow or approx $20M of free cashflow to do with what it chooses, and for now, mgt will plow most of that back into the business in remodelling and

[Goldbuggy1]

I am sorry my friend but it appears to me that it is you who needs to educate yourself about "Cash Flow". This company did have a Cash Flow of $1.13 per share but who said it was Free Cash Flow and the company can do whatever they want with this? Cash Flow is a good indicator to a company's health, but not the only indicator. Cash Flow is basic earnings after "Operating Expenses

[Goldbuggy1]

I don't wish anyone here bad luck, and I don't Short Stocks and then come here trying to tear that stock apart. LIQ has paid me nice Dividends over the years and although I have done badly on it recently, I suppose all in in I am in the Black. I do hope you do see your $12 and sooner then 1 or 2 years, but for many that is just the break even point, and a long time to wait just to get your

[Goldbuggy1]

Oh Yeah! I missed one more thing I wanted to say here. I said; "I do hope you do see your $12 and sooner then 1 or 2 years, but for many that is just the break even point, and a long time to wait just to get your money back." What I wanted to add was that many people were willing to wait that long before as at least then they were being paid a Dividend of almost 13.5%. Hard to find

[patenright111]

BUGGY , DOESNT MATTER WHAT ONE'S BREAK EVEN POINT IS. IF ONE CAN GET 50% RETURN IN 1-2 YEARS AND 60% INCLUDING THE DIVVIE, THEN MAKES SENSE TO STAY WITH LIQ EVEN IF SAY ONE BOUGHT AT 12 AS YOU NOW NEED TO COMPARE THAT RETURN WITH WHAT YOU COULD GET ELSEWHERE AND I DONT THINK YOU WILL FIND MANY OTHER PLACES WHERE YOU CAN GET 60% RETURN IN 1-2 YEARS

[FootballFan1]

I will give credit to Bebis and LIQ for finally doing the right thing and cutting the dividend.....Still not sure how well they can compete vs. the competition in Alberta / elsewhere, how profitable their new locations will be vs. the cost paid to acquire them / build them, etc.....One wild card for current shareholders: perhaps they will be bought out at a significant premium to the current share

[Goldbuggy1]

Actually Bebis had very little to do with this Dividend Cut because as he said himself in the 3rd Quarter, that is a Board Decision. But let me tell you what I can give Bebis credit for. As CEO for Brookstone (an electronics chain) he was wise enough to quit this company in 2013 just before they went bankrupt. He came over to LIQ as there new CEO then. In less than a year after his move Brookstone

[Goldbuggy1]

My Friend! I know that a 50% Stock Price increase in a year is a very good gain. But what I don't know is how you expect to get that from this stock. You are making some pretty big "Assumptions" here! The biggest one of all is that this stock price will be $12 in a year to give you this hypothetical 50% return on this Stock Price increase. To get to $12 this share price has to be

[patenright111]

first off I said 1-2 years. 2nd it is about cashflow, you seem overly fixated on eps, business is valued on cashflow not eps. so , in 1-2 years time, company will not need 18M/year for expansion and remodelling, maybe 5M. company in 2015 generated 30M in cashflow ( 1.13/shr). this will be $1.33 in 2016 or 36M less 5M for capx ( remodel, ect) so that leaves 31M of FREE cashflow to either pay down

[patenright111]

even if it hits $10 in 2 years, that is still a 15% annualized return including the dividend, so still way better than an average market return of 7-9% so again you have to look at it going forward and not thinking so much about what one;s break even level is , do you understand that ? obviously if one thinks it is dead money or going lower below 8 , than can understand selling but I just don'

[Goldbuggy1]

My Friend! It is you fixated on "Cash Flow" of this company which is wrong here. You are not describing a LIQ Stock one year down the road. You are describing a LIQ Stock from last year! In April 2015 this stock was trading at $15. They were paying a Dividend of $1.08 or at this price a 7.2% Yield. There Cask Flow was as you said $1.13 per share so the payout ratio to Cash Flow was 95

[patenright111]

OMG , please educate yourself on how cashflow is calculated. I am talking cashflow from CORE OPERATIONS NOT from selling assets or bringing in cash from financing . the cashflow figure already accounts for interest exp and all other expenses. It is profit add back non cash expenses. you do know profit already accounts for interest right? please take an accounting course. AGAIN AND I REPEAT, THE

[patenright111]

sorry I don't mean to be mean to you , but im starting to lose my patience with you. net earnings were 14.7M in 2015 and they have around $12M in depreciation and amortization expense which is a NON cash expense so add that back to profit and you are up to $27M of cashflow from OPERATIONS not including any working capital changes. they got 1.13/share or around 30M in cashflow so they likely

[Goldbuggy1]

No! I have no doubts about selling these shares as I have no doubt how this management has run this company these past 3 years. Could this stock price go up some? Sure! I still think it is undervalued as I did when I bought in at $9. A fare price right now should be about $9.50. But it doesn't mean to me it will get there. This stock is so volatile now it could go anywhere and in a hurray. I

[Goldbuggy1]

Of course I know what Free Cash Flow is. It is what this company does not have a lot of because of high debt and a lot of Adjusted Expenses. But since this company has so much extra money to do what it likes now, as you claim, why did this share price drop from $15 / share to $6.40 / share in less than 7 months? Why have they not paid off any debt from this big Free Cash Flow? What did they do

[patenright111]

cashflow statement doesn't like - $30M in 2015 is a FACT where did it go , well it all went to dividends. why did the stock drop in half, well partly because of deteriorating performance due to alberta, partly a realization that they were paying too high of a dividend in first place knowing they need extra money to expan and remodel and partly because it was tied with oil oil stocks and thus

[patenright111]

I said they are servicing their debt fine, here is why : company is covering their int exp fairly well at 3.5x coverage ( 30M cashflow + 12M int exp) / 12M = 3.5x. debt is around 130M. so debt/cashflow at 4.3x is a tad high. leverage is quite reasonable though at 0.78x ( TL/equity) you are making a big fuss of their debt levels when in fact they are ok

[Goldbuggy1]

I never claimed they had trouble servicing there debt. I only told you what they are paying to service this debt, which should be around $12.5 M a year. One Question about Cash Flow. In 2014 the Cash Flow was $1.01 per share and the Share Price in 2015 hit $15 and held there for quite awhile. Oil Price worries already started in August of 2014. But in there last Report there Cash Flow was $1.13

[patenright111]

Finally, I suggest you take a course on cashflow statement, there are 3 sections 1. operations. 2 financing 3. investing. It is the hardest statement of the 3 ( b/s , I/s, cashflow) to truly understand. I am a CFA by trade so I know a lot about cashflow and again cash is king, companies are valued on cashflow. cashflow cannot be manipulated like earnings can , and remember dividends are paid from

[Goldbuggy1]

I don't have to be an Accountant to know that if a company spends more than it earns, it will go broke unless it changes its ways. Never did I once see this company use the terms Cash Flow" or "Free Cash Flow" so I have no idea where you are getting this from. The company says exactly " Cash provided by operating activities before changes in non-cash working capital and

[ffhwatcher3]

If you can't find a company's cash flow statement on Sedar, you should just invest in Index Funds...likely a better return too, save a lot of time, effort, etc.  

[mike49]

You and I both moved on but for maybe different reasons.I feel like a traitor too but got good with it. If this is 6 ish in August I will look again. The turning point for me was the board and management both being paid large sums of money to defer decisions to each other.the money saved by 'right-sizing' staff is less than head office pay so just wrong and unfortunately,there is a

[Jmarks1]

I'm with you Goldbuggy1. Got out late yesterday, short wanted to buy and I had something to sell :) I think your assessment is bang on. IMO the business model they were using is broken, and I don't see a replacement. Currently too many parts of the business in flux with a management team I personally don't care for. Doesnt mean they won't pull it off though and for retail

[ILUVDIVIDENDS]

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