RE:RE:Out from Raymond JamesYes there are some headwinds, but also some potential upside factors looking forward as well:
- We have an OPEC meeting Dec 4, where there are rumors of another cut already, .5M bbls
- OPEC production missed by .2M bbls in Oct as countries can't even meet their quotas
- Shale oil DUC count rising as frac spreads are maxed out, shale oil output is flattening
- SPR Emergency Midterm Releases fizzling out and ending in Dec, now only around .3 to .4M bpd, and mostly light sweet
- PADD2 refineries to come back online
- Severe finished product shortfalls in PADD1, mainly diesel, HO, and jet, but gasoline as well
- TMX coming online in 2023Q3
- Russian oil embargos and price cap may lower amount of Russian oil supply
- Indian oil demand increasing
- China demand increasing
- European Energy Crisis, huge industrial sectors shuttered due to lack of energy supply
- geopolitical risks developing over the winter in ________ (fill in a country name here)
I added 10,000 more MEG shares at close today. Anything under $20 is a steal for this company.
churchofnutsacc wrote: 2021Gamble wrote: MEG Energy Downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
11:15 AM EST, 11/14/2022 (MT Newswires) -- MEG Energy Corp. (MEG.TO) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.
Analyst Michael Shaw maintained a price target of $22 on shares of the Calgary-based oil sands producer.
"MEG is facing a number of headwinds going into 2023," Shaw said in a note to clients. "Top among them is the persistently high differential on heavy sour barrels in both the USGC and Western Canada."
"While we agree with MEG's assessment that the abnormal heavy differentials will not last forever, it is difficult to assess when the US SPR releases or the impact of heavy Russian barrels trying to find a home will end," the analyst said.
"...MEG remains one of the best ways to play Western Canadian heavy oil prices," Shaw said. "Its long-lived, low decline, and low sustaining capex project make it an attractive investment over the long-term. As a tactical measure, we are lowering our rating to Market Perform to reflect current headwinds and relative valuation."
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
Price: 20.24, Change: -0.29, Percent Change: -1.41
They will most likley free cashflow over $1 per share for Q4, even with these differentials. And I can't imagine the differentials getting WORSE from here (I know, famous last words) - so I don't understand what these analysts are smoking.