MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

Recommendations on adding MEG

[pharmabros]

Hey board, don’t usually post, but I’m really interested in loading more MEG + asking for advice.
Please correct my mistakes, because I’m sort of a newbie investor (mostly BTE, with some SGY/ATH/MEG for now)
 
SO, MEG has:
0 hedging for 2022
WTI is over $92USD
A few billion tax pools (pay almost no tax in 2022)
65 years of oil on their land
Minimal capex to keep production stable
Maybe 1.5 billion of free cash flow this year? (optimistic estimate)
Approval for a new project (Surmont?)
Buyout candidate
 
I think it can double in the next year or 2? Can anyone give me their ideas, it sounds really good, I’m wondering should sell my ATH and move extra money into this one. It sounds better than ATH (bad hedges and lots of share dilution to survive last yr), but they both probably will do well! (my oil portfolio 70% BTE, 10% SGY, 10% ATH, 10% MEG)
 
Thank you if anyone can let me know their opinion!

[newcoin]

Eric Nuttall says MEG can go up 100 - 150% from these prices. You've summed up well. MEG is 10% of Eric's fund. If they implement a dividend it's $20 for sure. 60 years of reserve is outstanding! I won't be here in 60 years.

[Fuzman5902]

https://twitter.com/garquake/status/1490688430858280964/photo/1 Take a look @ the Chart & use a more accurate differential & Exchange rate. Outstanding if you think about it. Regards Fuz 

[newcoin]

Excellent Chart, Fuzman.

[pharmabros]

Ah very helpful, bookmarked! thank you There is an investor on twitter/youtube that did an excellent analysis of MEG Shubham Garg White Tundra, and I think his numbers are similar

[perstrudent]

I think youre low on fcf...i could see 1.8 to 2 billion at todays prices..., share buybacks likely to be announced starting April 1. This will compound the future potential...1.2 billion debt level will probably be hit September in which 50% fcf goes back..probably a small dividend at that point...I could see a $50 share price in 12 months....even $75 to 100 in 2 to 3 years if they dont get taken

[odinburnz]

Thats some powerful "seeing".

[pharmabros]

Ah yeah you're right. I just wasn't sure if oil stays at $95 all year, I hope it does,  that's kind of a sweet spot, not too low (tons of FCF) or too high (destroy economy) Do you think MEG could buy ATH? And then maybe CNQ or someone would buy MEG? I wouldn't mind ending up with a dividend paying stock out of all this!

[perstrudent]

I dont see MEG buying anyone..they have surmont if they really wanted to grow...but thats such a long lead time project and pricing uncertainty..my guess is they stay status quo buy back a ton of shares, continue to pay debt down to 0 and issue a divy later this year...then in a year or 2 if more clear picture of oil higher for longer they issue some shares and debt to begin surmont..... This of

[Fuzman5902]

Surmont is not in play form meg's perspective until Chrisina Lake reaches full production, which may take a decade if @ all. May River looks like it has the potential to be a much better project which is why I brought it up about a month ago. Wheter it's this year or next a decision will need to be made on Surmont. Regards Fuz 

[perstrudent]

What options does meg have for expansion..how much can Christina Lake expand to yet?...they used to list all their potential projects and expansions years ago but those have all disappeared..

[Eigen337]

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[perstrudent]

does anybody know what current capex is  per flowing barrel facility increase? What would a 40,000bbl day expansion cost to build? I doubt they would with supply chains access to material...labor.....but curious none the less...

[Eigen337]

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[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Fuzman5902]

Regulatory approval To 210 They may not increase production next year but after that i think they have to. Fuz