RE: Waiting for analyst estimatesMy estimate is a loss of close to 1 billion, lets say 975 million (doesn't sound so bad) or -53 cents per share. I just went through Q2 earnings and management said to expect a loss of at least 700 million on the re-evaluation of mortality assumptions. I came up to 975 million by adding 800 million in operating income, 275 million from the sale or reinsurance to Pacific Life, minus 600 million loss due to decrease in equity market, 750 million loss due to interest rates declines and 700 million loss for re-evaluation of mortality assumptions. That should leave the MCCSR at around 220. This is a very complex company and a lot of moving parts so not easy to predict; it seems there's always something being written down. The canadian dollar was also down in the quarter.
If Manulife can come out of this quarter with a loss of only about 1 billion, considering a write off of 700 million for mortality assumptions, 124 points decline in interest rates (from 3.16 to 1.92) and a 13% decline in equity markets, that should be a positive. Interesting to see what interest rates and equity markets will do in the next month while we wait for Q3 earnings.
https://www.cnw.ca/en/releases/archive/August2011/11/c2834.html