RE:What To DoRedblacks wrote: I look at the Stockhouse forum for advice as to what to do. I either accept it or reject,it but do appreciate honest concrete feedback that provides detail to your opinion. I have been a long term investor in MFC, and wonder whether it is time to pull it and wait for a drop.
Look forward to your responses.
I don't approach things this way, because I cannot predict the future.
Instead, I look to have a target weighting in my portfolio. I purchased MFC 3 times at average of $17.13 over a number of years now, 2 or 3 I guess, and it now sits at 5% of portfolio. As my target is usually 4 to 5% for a holding, I am in hold season, neither adding nor buying. There is no consideration as to whether I think MFC will drop or rise 30% in a short time frame. I don't even entertain the question.
I am up 43% plus dividends. So many people say made money, sell it, book profit. I say, the profit is there whether I sell it or not. I think in mark to market terms.
If MFC drops back to $17 and the rest of the portfolio stays the same, it would be weighted at 3.6% and I'd likely add some. Or if it hit $35, all else same it would be weighted 7.1%, I'd likely sell some.
I did this with TECK.B for example, 7 or 8 buys from $24 down to under $5, then I think 7 sells from $12 up to $35. My target initially was the usual 5%, but as it dropped to oblivion, it became 10%. When I own something long term useful like coal, copper, zinc, and oil at 1/10th what it would have cost a mere 3 or 4 years prior, even when sitting on a > 50% loss, I am willing to buy again to make it 5% and wait for it to get to 10%. I think with the earlier sells I left about $100,000 on the table when TECK.B was at $35, and only the sell at $35 looked good. Here we are a few short weeks later, and the sells at $28 and $29 don't look so bad. Today it sits at about 6.9% of the portfolio and I am frankly unsure if in the new year it goes back to a 5% holding with a sale, or back to 10% with a buy, or I just let it ride.
I wasn't playing with MFC back in 2009, I was otherwise occupied, but based on how I think, I would have likely gone to 5% when it was a $10 stock, and waited it out to 10%. Like TECK.B, I think insurance etc. is a long term useful thing, so would have been willing to sit at >50% loss at 5% portfolio weighting. I'd still be waiting as it turns out even though MFC is up about 1.5 times. The rest of the portfolio marched ahead too, and MFC would be under 5% at $24 today. But I'd have the whole $14 gain, about 13% PA average over 7 years, not just 2 or 3 dollars that others would have harvested early in order to shout from the rooftops "I made 30% in 6 months".
I look for big dollars over years, not big percentages over days. What I do achieves this. Turns out the annual average percentage is pretty good to, but I never get the opportunity to say I made 100% in 3 weeks, or 3% in one day. Oh, well, sucks to be me LOL.
Boulter