RE:down 8% since reaching all time high on Nov-15We WILL fall every time there is a rights offering like this well below share price, towards the price of the offering. It kinda shows where Management values the company at, so why would someone pay a large premium on that price to get shares, smart money will bid down.
Also you will have the issue of current shareholders figuring out what their maths are on rights shares gained and they can dispose of that many shares at higher prices and pay for the rights offering at lower prices and book the gain and take home an unreduced dividend if they played it right.
I called the downward movement because of these facts, unfortunately being right also means I've lost a couple thousand in value and it hurts, especially since I have a bunch of oil exposure and that took a kick in the nutz lately too, tho I felt it was trading above its weight of $75/barrel so I also expected a pull back there. We are also at the start of tax harvesting season, some people will book gains (or usually losses) now and start fresh for next year.
If we were ballsy enough, you could sell your position when the offering is announced, and then buy shares back in a window of a few days just before the offering comepletes, and you will be able to purchase more shares (maybe more than the offering would be worth to you) and you would not disrupt your dividend (I'm not willing to chance that game tho, I'll sit and hold)
It is likely that shares start to recover upward after the ex dividend date but may take 3 months to return to the past level when smart money sees how the new share count stacks up it's new 'per share' earnings ratings.
All the others in the sector have pulled back to various degrees lately, but I don't really have a connection between them on this reason other than maybe the idea of interest rate movement. If you check Firm Capital's board I called that one also as I did a dive into them as I still hold shares there, tho this has happened earlier than I expected in that case. FC has pulled back about 6% off the highs and just completed financing including dilution, First National has pulled back 16% from the highs but I have no insight on that one. Timbercreek, Atrium and Bridgemarq are all only down like 1-3% in the last few months.