RE: MOL now the best value - VlietFirst and foremost is that my outlook on medium term Moly price has changed for the better. The other big mines are delayed by 1-2 yrs and that opens up the valuation for MOL IF they can get into production. Had MOL been the last of the biggies to come down the pike, I'd still be as skeptical as I am not confident the Mo market will hold.
Fe discovery is obviously early days, but it's in a belt where the big Fe boys play. They don't need much of deposit tonnage-wise if they find more high grade magnetite. They'll benefit from the infrastructure from the Moly mine and capex would be minor for a magnetic separation plant. Could generate very nice returns.
Nor did I think MOL would be able to finance this project on decent terms. They seem confident 80-20% debt-equity and I'm more reassured that's possible based on the interest Mittal has shown for GMO. Running the numbers with only a 20% dilution makes a big diff, especially since I think they will enjoy good to very good Mo prices when they start - could throw off significant cash flow to pay down debt.