Post by
Power33 on Mar 13, 2023 9:36am
Mpvd
There are 3 diamond sales in q1. Given the rise in the zimnisky rough diamond index in 2023 and the fact that DeBeers have increased the price of their small diamonds by over 20pc n their first two sales in 2023, I am expecting record diamond sales in first quarter. We will know this around 10 April. I see mpvd getting a handle on their costs by saving money by exiting Us market. The bondholders are obviously pushing to get repaid as fast as possible. I see usd to cad rate is now 1.38 against 1.20 a year ago. I also note that Canadian diesel prices have dropped a lot since start of 2023, and particularly against a year ago. I also note that de beers will be carrying out a winter exploration program for Gahcho Kue and Kennady lands in next few months. There could be great news here in the pipeline. The de beers new CEO Al Cooke comes from an exploration background, and this change of the guard may very well result in an extended life of mine plan incorporating recent discovered Hearne extension find, Tuzo deep, NEX extension and the Kennady assets. Mark Wall has publicly said they are in discussions with De Beers re extending life of mine. I have seen also that 2024 looks now a lot better now from an investor presentation on mpvd website. Surely production for this year will revert to a more normal level in the 6m's compared to last years 5.6m, with all the 2022 production problems well documented. I am expecting ebitda of over 200m cad for FY 2022, when results are announced next week. With favourable exchange rates, lower diesel prices, increased production and a stronger diamond market, I think it is reasonable that mpvd could pay 130m usd off it's debt this year. This will leave only 110m usd if debt at the end of year. I would expect that bond debt can be refinanced by bank debt at this stage at much cheaper interest rates and a more flexible repayment plan that could every result in significant dividends in 2024 being higher than todays share price. I think mpvd have turned the corner and that will start to be obvious to the market when the results are released next week, in my humble opinion. Mpvd needs to pay off as much of the bonds in 2023 as possible and refinance with cheaper bank debt. They need to work with de beers on an extended life of mine plan till 2040. If management need to get the debt down to 110 m usd by end of the year, with net current assets of say 70m usd. They need to tee up refinancing for year end with bank debt. They need to extend the life of mine plan to 2040 and start paying dividends next year. I really believe mpvd should be 5cad today, not the paltry 47c that mpvd closed at on Friday.
Comment by
Diamondboy123 on Mar 15, 2023 5:09pm
Why is at almost all time lows? Not good.