RE:RE:RE:Is recession contagious? I'm sure you've heard the phrase that "the market climbs a wall of worry"; and frankly, nattering nabobs of negativity are only too happy to feed this wall of worry. Read Dr. Eric Topol's Twitter feed to see what he says about the Covid variants. (and note that he's not a Trumpist who's into denial). Topol calls the variants "scariants" for the simple reason that the media loves to splash scary headlines across the tape, e.g. "double-mutant Indian (or British, or Brazilian) variant proves to be more lethal and more contagious". What the same headline neglects to add is that the variants are stopped with increasing vaccinations, as we've seen in Israel and the UK (yes, the UK, home of the British variant... beaten back with increasing vaccinations). So, I'm not being a Pollyanna, just perhaps a bit more of a realist. Stay safe, get vaccinated, and have a good weekend!
bogfit wrote: I hope you are right to "expect this European recession will be transitory at best."
and "growth to resume in a big way across Europe in the latter half of 2021..."
But unlike yourself I am not so sure.
Why, because comparisons to other countries is simplistic and fallacious. Political, cultural, and economic variances predetermine the course of a pandemic in any population. The importance of world trade should be seen as time dependent, such as in supply chains - you know - weakest link?? What the U. S. did last month may be inappropriate for another country to attempt next month. The Pandemic is evolving, spreading, and becoming more contagious; and in time more lethal. There is no guarantee a variant might not evolve that is highly resistant to the present series of antibodies. Are you factoring the possibility of having to reimmunize the world’s population again?
The fact is neither you nor anyone else has any idea of the eventual scope of damage to world economies and global trade from the Covid Pandemic. It may be entirely possible for rich nations such as the U.S. to spend their way to eventual prosperity, but that luxury isn’t universally available.
I.E. - You may have heard they do some mining down in Brazil however,
“Brazil is in the grip of a health and social emergency. It has the world's second-highest death toll from the pandemic at over 370,000, and hospitals are near collapse. A study last week found that 60% of Brazilian households have food insecurity, lacking sufficient access to enough to eat.”
And how far is India from total collapse? I hope for the best too, but Pollyanna, wishful thinking might truly be the opium of the people.
b.