RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:I know that some have trouble understandin"NCU is copper therefore we all speculate in the underlying driver is the spot price of copper. "
And what drives the driver? That’s a bit more complicated, isn’t it
“It's not an exact / to the penny calculation, it provides a "range" of values.”
And that makes it mere guess work.
“Prior historical speculated demand vs prior actual demand gives the margin of error calculation on future demand and future price.”
Okay, you are assuming that the difference in the historical error calculation can be applied to future markets, but what if those market conditions change due to some new and unexpected influence? Fifty years ago, a book entitled “Future shock” made a case for the increasing acceleration of change in technology, our life styes. In other words, things change more quickly than before. That along with global markets, instant communications, over-population, and extreme weather damage to infrastructure all point to a NEW reality.
You seem to believe that what wall street has done in the past, will continue unabated, yet you have absolutely no proof or guarantee that your calculations using past performance, will represent the same again in the future. None, what-so-ever. All you are doing is babbling about the way things used to be, and very few mistakes in judgement can prove more costly when trading stock than an outdated strategy.
Accept reality or lose money, adapt or face extinction, I really don’t care what you do.
b.