RE:RE:RE:RE:All it takes is 1 new news release. Gltua!!Time for a dose of reality, NF. NCU has been long on promises for years now, without delivering any of them. One good news release is not going to change that reputation.
Some considerations:
- Dilution. Everytime there is a dilution event, it is presumed that this is all the money that they need to finally get the mine going full speed. Fool me once...fool me twice.... Let's see if we have more dilution in June 2022, when they run out of money again.
- Latest financials. 19,570 tons grading 0.8% Cu in October. This 630 tons per day. That is the equivalent of 3 development rounds per day, two of which are likely in low grade or waste.
- Stope production. Four stopes mined in H2 2021. Assuming 20,000 ton stopes, to mine 5000 tpd means that they need a new stope every 4 days, or seven stopes per month. They are currently mining 1 stope per month. They are very far from 7 stopes per month.
- Development rates. The most important performance metric right now is not tons mined. The most important performance metric is development advance. Why don't they give development advance in all their operations reports, which is done by all other mines under development? In the October 6 update, for the first time ever, they did give development advance, 750 feet in September 2021. That is a really lame 25 feet per day, or two rounds per day.
- Empty words. "Implementation of enhanced management systems at Pumpkin Hollow". I think Randy got those weazel words from the legal department. It worries me that this is the best that they can put in an operations update...implementation of enhanced management systems...weazel words do not inspire confidence. Makes him sound alot like the last guys.
- The fans. The fans are not here. Delivery in late Q4 2021. What are the chances that the delivery will slide, again. The day that the fans arrive, is not the day that they start working. Installation, electrical, commisioning, and there are multiple fans...hopefully the fans are fully operational by Q2 2020.
- The pit. There are only 107 million tonnes in the open pit reserve. In a PFS or FS, only the mineral reserve is considered. Mineral resource means nothing. In a 37,000 tpd open pit, 13 million tonnes are mined per year. 107 million tonnes is only eight years of production. Nobody is investing $672M for a pit with 8 years of mineral reserves. Much more drilling to be done. Open pit decision...maybe 2024, followed by financing, bulding and production maybe 2027.
- The other porphyrys and satelites. Almost no drilling, no mineral resource, much less mineral reserve. Maybe mining in the other porphyrys in 10+ years.
I am long on NCU. I think it has potential, but it is a long road ahead. It will be an accomplishment if they are cash positive sometime anytime in H1 2022.
RockDoc