RE:Does anyone see a quick turn around in copper? I don't. #1 rule is sentiment follows price, which means the natural tendency for humans is to sell at bottoms and buy at tops. So, when sentiment is terrible, I think "buy time?"
As to copper and the market in general, a few thoughts about s/t:
- major war in Europe and industry breaking energy costs;
- record setting US monetary tightening;
- USD rapidly increasing invalue (for every increase of 1% vs basket of all global currencies, volume of global trade decreases by 0.6 to .8% (IMF Numbers, this is what is meant when US 'exports' inflation)
- weak Chinese growth and zero covid damacles
I see all of these as short term issues. Inflation will be dead by winter. UKR will fall before winter. China has to relax zero covid given omicron's infectivness and lack of deadly-ness. USD strength has already maxed out at 109. China will stimulate.
So, copper has probaly bottomed at $3.20. Markets may have a bit further to drop until we get some lower cpi #s and higher unemployment, but I am not cashing out now as I believe in Lynch's "people lose more money tpreparing for crashes than they make when they happen".
At any rate, my prediction is sideways chop for most things until war ends, then slow march upwards as we 4% the debt away. I like Nov as 'switch' month.