RE:RE:RE:Roy - Curious what the bond market is telling you today. may not have been clear. bonds dont predict future, they tell you what the people buy/selling think the future will be.
So, market sentiment for wage/price spiral increases with hot nfp, meaning increased worry we'll need Volcker headstomp, change in prices.
however, irl, these numbers get revised. For example nfp march(iirc) 2020 was 500k, 6 months later it was changed to -200k.
I dont blindly trust numbers from America anymore because the bureaucracy has been politicized and staffed with ideologues for whom truth holds no moral weight. They will lie to your face because winning is the only thing, as they believe they are fighting literal evil, so, we'll see if they hold up. They can mess with them short term, but not long term.
Anyway, only real danger for uncontrolable inflation, imo, is Biden picking a fight with china by sailing nuclear aircraft groups within 90miles of China's coastline because USD grc is being attacked. A sunk carrier and hot/cold war will cause liftoff. 50/50 RN, as US is unpredictable.