The "triple-dip" La Niña may give way to an El Niño – (But IMO will not flood Peru until spring ’24)
“The first "triple-dip" La Nia event of the 21st century is waning, and the odds of an El Nio in the tropical Pacific Ocean are rising, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday.
It can be difficult to predict the evolution of a switch from one side of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to another. But forecasters are confident that the La Nia will soon be over after lasting through three straight winters in the Northern Hemisphere (hence the term "triple dip").
The chances of El Nio in WMO's outlook gradually rise from 15% during the April through June period, to 35% in May to July, and top out at 55% by June through August. But such predictions are known to be less reliable when made leading into the spring, rather than coming out of the summer months. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, projects increasing odds of an El Nio event going into mid-to-late 2023, supported by a variety of computer model simulations
For example, La Nia is blamed for setting in motion the failed rainy seasons and dire famine in the Horn of Africa, which is expected to worsen.
It is likely that the effects of the La Nia event will linger longer than usual, leading to continued dryness in the Horn of Africa and elevated risks of flooding in Australia and Southeast Asia.”
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/triple-dip-la-nina-followed-by-el-nino-wmo
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