Nevada Copper Corp T.NCU

NCU at >>> $4.75 copper >>> end of 2021 >>>

[Notgnu]

If we get $4.75 copper and we get confirmation of steady state production of 5,000 tons per day from underground then what?

$4.75 mius $1.86 AISC (all-in sustaining cost) = $2.89 per pound cash-flow

$2.89 X 60 million pounds (underground) per year = $173.4 million per year

Apply an 8 X multiple and get $1.39 billion,

Divide $1.39 billion by say 2 billion shares and get $0.69 USD per share

Converted to CAD = $0.86 per share 

Add the value of the future 70,000 tpd open pit asset to the $0.86 per share using $4.75 copper and get 220 million pounds per year at $2.75 ($4.75 minus $2.00 AISC) X an 8 multiple = $3.85 billion 

Take $3.85 billion and remove $2 billion (a big over estimate) for the cost to build the open pit and get $1.85 billion. Divide this amount by 2.3 billion shares and get $0.92 USD per share which equals $1.14 CAD per share.

Take the open pit value of $1.14 (at $4.75 copper) and divide it by 2 because no one wants to pay for it's value and get about $0.57 CAD per share.

Add $0.86 per share plus the $0.57 per share = $1.43 per share. 

 

So, if you were Pala and copper were to be $4.75 at the end of the year, you probably would not even want to talk to a buyer for less than $1.43 per share in that case.

Cheers,
Notgnu

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Will copper go to $5.50 by year end? NCU >>>

If we get $5.50 copper and we get confirmation of steady state production of 5,000 tons per day from underground then what?

 

$5.50 mius $1.86 AISC (all-in sustaining cost) = $3.64 per pound cash-flow

 

$3.64 X 60 million pounds (underground) per year = $218 million per year

 

Apply an 8 X multiple and get $1.74 billion,

 

Divide $1.74 billion by say 2 billion shares and get $0.87 USD per share

 

Converted to CAD = $1.08 per share 

 

Add the value of the future 70,000 tpd open pit asset to the $1.08 per share using $5.50 copper and get 220 million pounds per year at $3.50 ($5.50 minus $2.00 AISC) X an 8 multiple = $6.16 billion 

 

Take $6.16 billion and remove $2 billion (a big over estimate) for the cost to build the open pit and get $4.16 billion. Divide this amount by 2.3 billion shares and get $1.81 USD per share which equals $2.31 CAD per share.

 

Take the open pit value of $2.31 (at $5.50 copper) and divide it by 2 because no one wants to pay for it's value and get about $1.14 per share.

 

Add $1.08 per share plus the $1.14 per share = $2.22 per share. 

 

So, if you were Pala and copper were to be $5.50 at the end of the year, you probably would not even want to talk to a buyer for less than $2.22 per share in that case

 

Cheers,

Notgnu

 

[patchh]

call the mine up and have em sell the thing' @ nine. lets sell...

[Notgnu]

How's your Russian? N.

[patchh]

1.46 $ share is simply shiken shittz..  yes U will make godzilla on the wts.. but give it a rest... the last thing i want to see is rio or bhp moving in here...  i live here..  i want order and stability ! Vlad pretty much fits the bill !  he would also B a global laughing stork if he sold @ 1.46. whre do U come up w a dead poem - that addd up to 1.46.. Castle Rok.. 

[Notgnu]

I really don't have the full picture / info to game theory all of that out. Let's just get to 75 cents plus at year end and I will hive a few off to party like it is (was) 1999. N

[patchh]

real simple !   C rok has lost more than 4%..  in real money thats 8% w a recapture.. this is when proxies move in to replace boards or simply sell the company... I know U ignore the tea leaves.. but tis is close...  an adverse reuling on F41 and there will B no distrik...  it will simply B every mine for themselves... NCI is a huge whale and anybody/thing can move

[Notgnu]

Tea leaves... what the fcckkuk. Give me data, evidence. Who is going to tender their shares at 20 cents or even 26. Explain how by throwing actual fund holdings numbers (that are available) into the description. N

[Notgnu]

Here... some bedtime reading: https://marcomm.mccarthy.ca/pubs/guide_mergers.pdf

[patchh]

 more significant shareholders whose support is essential for a bid to succeed The US Securities and Exchange Commission has adopted exemptions to facilitate the extension of bids to the US security holders of Canadian and other foreign targets. For example, a bid for a Canadian "foreign private issuer" can be made to US holders of the target’s securities without complying with

[Notgnu]

Send an email to the market police north and south. Castle Rock is not pulling an illegal market manipulation scheme to defraud common shareholders... way too much to lose in doing so and way to many individuals would need to collude. NCU will simply track up with production and the price of copper... end of story. N

[patchh]

thats not an illegal manipulation to have partner investors buy less than 2%...  they simply get to vote  ! i don't know wht the rules are..  but globally its around 7% as a solo investor - who is still allowed to approach the 2%%

[patchh]

production traks..  CR is taking the loss 4 taxes.... i do not trak these sedars - but i know when a pin' is loose ! that was a good scoping note by one of the board members...