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NEULION, INC. T.NLN

"NeuLion Inc is a technology product and service provider that offers digital video broadcasting, distribution and monetization of live and on-demand content to Internet-enabled devices."


TSX:NLN - Post by User

Comment by ocean112on Sep 26, 2015 6:18pm
232 Views
Post# 24138546

RE:RE:RE:RE:Perform Group

RE:RE:RE:RE:Perform Group____ I wish there was more transparency, and I've reviewed their 10K at length to get as much insight as possible...but it may not be possible to be 100% transparent. It's up to the investor to do their own due diligence since it gets really complicated. NFL may have an agreement directly with Neulion to power Game Pass for international markets, but I might argue - at the moment - the bulk of Neulion's business comes from cable distributors (ie. Rogers, BT Sport, SKY, China TV, etc), not the content owners themselves (NFL, NBA, etc). When Neulion said 10% of revenue last year was from the NHL, was that paid by the NHL to Neulion for out of market games or did that include Rogers paying Neulion for Gamecenter live? How do they slice and dice which customers provide what revenue to the bottom line. My guess - NHL was inconsequential in the grand scheme of things - since they are still getting paid by Rogers for Gamecenter live in Canada.....and perhaps lost the US rights as part of the BAM Tech deal with NHL. It requires a little digging but i'll give an example. When BT Sport purchases the rights to NBA games in the UK, and licenses Neulion's platform to distribute the games live online - who is the customer? BT Sport or NBA. I think if they disclosed all their customer relationships - it would be like trying to solve a 10x10 rubiks cube. Sky TV may buy the rights to PGA in New Zealand, and license Neulion to distribute certain tournaments in NZ. Again - in this case - Sky generates the revenue for Neulion - not PGA - because Sky owns the rights to distribute PGA games in New Zealand. In other words - the leagues may hire Neulion directly (ie. NFL, NBA), but more likely - the distributors may generate the bulk of business for Neulion when they purchase the content rights for any sports league (which is in the billions of dollars). Long and short - the combinations and permutations become utterly confusing. A simple example using Sky TV may illustrate. Assume Sky TV in New Zealand buys the rights (hypothetically) for NBA, NFL, and PGA. They hire Neulion to distribute the games live using their digital platform for only android and apple devices. However, they want to expand to Roku, XBOX, and Playstation (and say 7 other devices) - so now the revenue model changes - you have broadcaster, content owner, and number of devices (ignoring usage growth fees). In this example, you would have a 1 (sky tv) x 3 (nfl, nba, pga) x 10 (roku, apple, android, xbox, etc.etc) = 30 different licence revenue streams just for one broadcaster. If consumers sign up in the thousands - Neulion gets a cut of that growth as well. Add in Millicom, China TV, Rogers, BT Sport, etc.etc....you see where I'm going (I hope) - it gets complicated very quickly. Who is the customer? NFL or the broadcaster (Sky, BT Sport, Rogers)? It's a grey line - but in this case Neulion works directly with the leagues, AND with the broadcasters. It's also why there is a question mark on the future of sports broadcasting. Do content owners (like the NFL) bypass cable distributors (ie. CBS, FOX) - and sell directly to consumers via their own platforms 10 years from now? Technology that Neulion owns is the fundamental game changer in how the industry works today (ie. it gives content owners the ABILITY to stream directly to clients bypassing broadcasters). Likely not going to happen anytime soon because the bulk of NFL revenue (or any sport franchise) come from sold broadcast rights (in the billions of dollars) paid by CBS, FOX (heck even Yahoo paid $20M just to broadcast JUST ONE game in the UK) that line the pockets of Jerry Jones, Robert Craft and co. However, things may be changing. Steve Ballmer (LA Clippers owner former MSFT CEO) - has actually rejected a $60M broadcast deal and may use a service (LIKE Neulion) to stream local market games in LA. https://www.fiercecable.com/story/ballmers-clippers-reportedly-reject-60m-year-rsn-offer-may-forge-ahead-ott/2015-08-28 Based on this article - the LA Clippers may actually make more money this way than selling the broadcast rights. Ballmer - as a team owner - may be trailblazing for what is about to come in sports rights distribution. Now assume LA Clippers is the only franchise to broadcast in 4K (because Ballmer is a tech Junkie) - and Neulion is the only provider that provides 4K Capability. Do you think the LA Clippers fan will want to watch a game via FOX Sports in 1080p or via a $12/month subscription service directly to LA Clippers for 4K quality streaming video using Neulion???? This is where Neulion is on the cusp of something huge - a shift in the way sports rights are sold - and whether or not league owners may cut out the middleman (cable operators) and go straight to consumers with Neulion like technology. Based on my analysis of BAM Tech - their platform maturity doesn't come close to what Neulion offers (may be debateable). I looked at the charts for Netflix - if you can believe - in 2002 - their stock was $0.65 cents a share....because Netflix was a game changer - their stock is $106 today.....I believe Neulion is on the forefront of something similar - a disrupter for sports entertainment. There will be competitors - but Neulion has about a decade head start.... Anyway - I'm holding my Neulion shares for the next 10 years now that I got them at under a $1.00 (to me it was a steal)....
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