RE:RE:RE:Eps downgradeCraig - you're using valuation metrics that might be more appropriate for a company that has been around for many years and is a steady cash cow.
I haven't seen many tech companies (other than IBM) - where analysts really look at EPS for high growth stocks.
Amazon for years had been running negative EPS. Yelp just came out with earnings (negative EPS) but higher revenue and thier stock increased today (they rallied 8% today).
EBITDA and revenue growth are more appropriate metrics for high growth stocks like Neulion.
With the DivX acquistion my calculations actually show negative EPS for the year (given higher R&D and SG&A)...however, EBITDA growth should be at significantly higher (If you read the quarterly financials - there is an addback of $3M - $4M per quarter to account for purchase accounting which significantly increases thier quarterly EBITDA despite EPS being negative.
As for next year - the question will come down to whether or not the "doubled" salesforce (per the acquisition of DivX) is translating into higher revenue growth as they penetrate international markets. The potential is definately there, but it will come down to execution. If they execute and meet sales targets with the beefed up sales team - I don't expect this price to stick around very long.
if you look at this article -
https://www.cantechletter.com/2015/06/neulion-is-an-acquisition-target-says-m-partners/
M Partners outlines a fair valuation of 4x last 12 months revenue or 12.4 EBITDA.....based on this - 2015 price target shoud be $1.5 (using 4x revenue assuming they come in at $92M) or $1.10 if you go by 12.4x EBITDA (assuming they come in at $20M for the year - they're already at $10M for the year and Q4 is thier strong quarter).
For 2016, using the same valuation metrics - assuming 13% growth (versus historical 20%) with the loss of NHL, 4x LTM would have price target of $1.65 but 12.4x EBITDA for 2016 would be closer to $1.00.....