Verde AgriTech Ltd. T.NPK

Alternate Symbol(s): VNPKF

Chemicals Basic Materials

Verde AgriTech Ltd is an agricultural technology company that produces potash fertilizers. The principal activity of the Company is the production and sale of a multi-nutrient potassium fertilizer marketed in Brazil under the brands K Forte and BAKS, Silicio Forte, and internationally as Super Greensand (the Product). K Forte is a potash fertilizer that is a source of potassium, silicon, and magnesium and micronutrients. BAKS is a combination of K Forte plus three other nutrients that can be chosen by customers according to their crops’ needs. It mines and processes its main feedstock from its 100% owned mineral properties, then sells and distributes the Product. Its Cerrado Verde Project is in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, which is a potassium-rich deposit, from which it is producing solutions for crop nutrition, crop protection, soil improvement, and increased sustainability. Its technologies are Cambridge Tech, 3D Alliance, MicroS Technology, N Keeper, and Bio Revolution.

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Verde AgriTech Ltd.

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Post by Stupidaon Jan 10, 2022 5:59pm

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Post# 34301607

Fun with Facts and Figures, or Perhaps Fun with Guidance

Good day, did some analysis below. I encourage/soliciti commentary and feedback either way.

i ran some numbers on the 2022 guidanc to arrive at revenue per tonne, EBITDA per tonne and EBITDA margin below:

Some thoughts.
-Given the capacity of the existing plant is 600,000 annually or 150,000 per quarter and the fact that the new plant has 1,200,000 tonnes annuall or 300,000 a quarter, guidance they assume new plant starts in Q2. Combined capacity would be 1,800,000 annually or 450,000 a quarter.

-Given above, they assume new mining licence must come in at latest in Q2.

-Given how much profitability improves in Q2/Q3 in terms of EBITDA margin and EBITDA per tonne (even after accounting for the difference (between Q1) in revenue per tonne) the new plant must be much more efficient than the first plant, makes sense its twice as large.

-Anyone have an idea why pricing per tonne is changing per quarter during 2022 guidance as opposed to flat pricing? The highest price is achieved in Q2 and Q3 per tonne when production is the greatest, there is risk these prices may not be achieved

-Q4 2021 revenues and thus profitability will be much better than the Nov 15, 2021 guidance since the company is indicating such high prices in Q1 2022 and what we have seen with pricing in Q4 as previously posted: The Company is pleased to announce another increase in its 2021 guidance. The new target is set at R$110 million of revenue for 2021, which would represent an increase of 120% to the Company’s original guidance of R$50 million. If achieved, this new target will represent a 212% growth Year-on-Year

Guidance	Q1 2022	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Q4 2022	FY 2022
EBITDA per Tonne	11.81	50.78	53.66	25.97	40.62
EBITDA Margin	13.5%	46.3%	49.3%	26.9%	39.3%

Tonnes Sold		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
2018	Actual	-	-	9,007	20,641	29,648
2019	Actual	1,093	23,600	62,895	32,221	119,809
2020	Actual	10,170	71,183	105,769	56,585	243,707
2021	Actual Q1-Q3, Q4 Guidance	16,558	96,233	153,674	133,535	400,000
2022	Guidance	115,000	200,000	250,000	135,000	700,000

Revenue
2018	Actual	-	-	666	692	1,358
2019	Actual	154	1,329	3,055	1,491	6,029
2020	Actual	510	2,492	3,956	2,209	9,167
2021	Actual Q1-Q3, Q4 Guidance	831	5,376	10,651	8,964	25,822
2022	Guidance	10,070	21,954	27,228	13,011	72,263

Price/Tonne
2018	Actual	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	73.94	33.53	45.80
2019	Actual	140.90	56.31	48.57	46.27	50.32
2020	Actual	50.15	35.01	37.40	39.04	37.61
2021	Actual Q1-Q3, Q4 Guidance	50.19	55.86	69.31	67.13	64.56
2022	Guidance	87.57	109.77	108.91	96.38	103.23