Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

The cure for high oil prices has always been ...

[Indicator]

... high oil prices (original author unknown).

I don't claim any clear cyrstal ball on the future, but I do know that there are Uber Bulls out there and there are Naysayers and many in between.  I take them all with grain of salt :-)

Fesharaki's case is that greed is not gone from financiers of shale - yes they have forced good short term behaviour on shale producers, but his argument remains - if prices keep rising greedy financiers will want into the HUGE JUICY cash flow action and crank up the shale producers.  Greede hath no bounds and ESG worries by some bankersexhibiting  tender sensitivities will not restrain the rush to massive new, albeit short term profits by shale financiers!

Is Fesharaki correct that Saudi actually wants $75 oil and not higher to keep greed from ramping shale up again, time will tell.  One thing is for sure, Pigs get slaughtered and now that the easy money pandemic bounce is over, I'll thank the market for these tasty profits, kee one hand on the exit door and be about a more cautious way forward.

Always enjoy the interesting conversations here ...  good luck!

[Oldnagger]

What we are probably all talking about is a race for increasing production in the face of increasing demand. No one knows the outcome except they do know that eventually energy prices will settle at a price where supply and demand are balanced. At that point neither Opec nor the Permian may be leading the parade, rather the pricing basis may be obscure as different energy sources compete to fill

[Oldnagger]

One more thought that just hit me. I am a real estate developer. It has become nigh impossible to find skilled people to do just about anything. shortage of engineers,technicians,surveyors,machine operators etc etc.It is so bad it is almost unbelievable. 6 month delays even for soil tests. So if people believe that petroleum supply will be quickly be ramped up or that renewables will quickly rule

[Sugaree]

Oldnagger, any prediction on where you could see Nuvista share price ending the year? Or anyone else for that matter. I have mine, but will reveal later so as not to influence any projections.

[Oldnagger]

I am going to try to make this a little easier on myself. So I would much rather prefer to estimate the price for when the year end reserves are published  (around mid march I guess ) My point is I love reserves values and my very rough guess is that the DCF value will be at the very least twice last years due to higher pricing and also due to higher PDP quantities and higher condensate

[Sugaree]

Wait, you think by next April after reserves published you see Nuvista $12-$15 a share? Or is that a number well,down the road?

[Oldnagger]

Well the 2020 yearend report showed an after tax npv at 10% of 2.5 billion . So add on another 2.5 billion and subtract 0.5 billion in debt and that gives $20 per share. That is what the company will be worth to me. I don't have a clue how long it will take the market to figure it out ,but as long as I am converting oxygen to carbon dioxide, I can wait !! On second thought I shouldn't have

[Sugaree]

My favourite Oldnagger post of 2021!! If WTI gets rolling in Jan/Feb/Mar I can see $10 on the horizon for sure. $12-$15 serious bonus. You figure we are still on track Oldnagger?

[Oldnagger]

Next time please throw me a curve ball or a slider, anything but a lob, Nat gas is up 50% year over year, WTI by 75%, and drilling returns are way over 100% with payouts well under a year. Omicron will only be a distant memory by then, and international crude and nat gas shortages will be very apparent once winter has exacted its toll.

[gossamer4]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Indicator]

No worries, I have it on good authority that NVA pigs will be spared ;-) ;-)  due to their 'valuable service to society' ! ;-) ;-) Please tell the City of Vancouver that Natgas and Condensate are clean.  In their rush to enter into a cringe worthy group hug with "green" cities to the south, they are banning NatGas in new construction.  Electric appliances

[Oldnagger]

It is time for people to speak up . The environmental movement has become dominated by the lunatic fringe and our politicians to their discredit are giving them a voice irregardless of their economically insane dictates. Sincerely, I do believe that money invested wisely helps society to advance, and we provide the necessary equity component that allows a free capitalistic society to prosper

[Sugaree]

Agreed. i think if WTI/Brent can stay in a range of $70-$80 it would keep shale curtailed, and make current producers good money, i.e. canaidan producers, and of course OPEC, lol.  If oil does remain flat in this range, our beloved stocks may lose some momentum in the short term, but as quarterly reports come out each quarter with giant CF, they will get their due.