RE:RE:Falling Knife Brilliant analysis from a guy who obviously got lost on his way to the MJ BBs. Off to the bin he goes along with Erection (who grew tiresome).
Expect NVEI to resume its upward trajectory this year. GLTA
We don't come here either for the literature or the brilliant analysis. We come here because one in a hundred has a good idea or a valuable insight and we can let the ADHD and the package selfies just float by until we see it.
So my "reading of the tea leaves" from Dec 29th still stands - that last bulge was just winding up business for year-end and it carried on a day or two longer than one might have expected, though to be fair the volume was very low so one has to expect a fair measure of uncertainty at that level. Back in Dec. I averaged down at $64 from my small position taken before the report and stepped aside at $78 having made nearly all the paper loss back, so I'm not upset. These things happen. Without that serious market overreaction I wouldn't have had the chance to get back some of the losses, and the bull**it talkers all helped playing their part.
Fair value at this time does indeed look like $65 to me, but it won't be long before people start getting excited about the next earnings at which time bigger investors than us retail minnows will be taking another look, and then I agree, I think you'll see the steady march upward again. By mid-Jan I expect to see us well-bottomed out and will likely take a small position again then for February earnings, and then rinse and repeat for April-May at which time I think I will be happy to be holding for a longer term.
I will say from experience that when short reports come out, that the equities affected never regain the frothy excess of their early years, so I don't see any $200 this year or next. The business can't grow that fast, and there's too much competition. But at least it's not LSPD, which really has been hurt and with reason. That's an equity I was never comfortable with.