Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Telegraphing.....

[kavern23]

So far OBE's management has given clues before on what they are planning on doing that could have lead to a person infering the results....
Example: The Peace River well spud earlier in the fall when nothing in predsentation said any PROP drilling in 2021...person should have infered from the spud we would buy PROP in hindsight.

Which leads me to this question for people on this board......

Why was this important enough to include in OCt 27 press release but no mention of it in recent update:
The Spirit River well flowed at an average rate of 937 boe/d (including 168 bbl/d field condensate) for its first ten days. This rate increased to 1,144 boe/d (including 212 bbl/d field condensate) on its twelfth producing day upon removal of its downhole choke.

Was it an oversight and just missed in the Q3 results to be talked about?

Or is some other plan in the works...regarding this.....

[kavern23]

So let's assume that Sprit River gas well was drilled also for "marketing purposes"..ie shows a prospective buyer what that zone has on Wily land...more evidence the better although isn't much exploration risk with that zone...it exists all around there. I think before a person goes futher in is it even feasinle...what are pro s and con s of selling Spirit River zone. Cons

[JohnJBond]

This Board is controlled by investors  ie Buy low, sell high How? They buy poorly managed assets.   Then remanage them.   That typically means allocate capital to highest return assets and cut expenses If they wanted to raise $50 million they would of sold PROP, not bought it.   They don't need the money.    They are probably close to $100 million funds flow

[kavern23]

John...I am probably generous in saying OBE needs total debt down to 350M before it can refinace the term out easily...it may be 300M or hopefully not 280 (sad face). I wouldnt be balls deep in OBE shares if I was worried about the ability to pay but I am not a big 5 bank employee that can alter the reality. Companies like Gear Energy or Cardinal...want to run at 0 debt. Well we don't have to

[geezer21]

"My guess is that 300 gets split 50/50 div/(debt & cap ex)" Wanting dividends is a bad idea.  Wanting a few percentages in dividends rather then leaving money in a company earning returns over 50% or more is foolish. Leave the money where it is earning the most. If you want a few percentages go buy a GIC with no risk.

[kavern23]

Storm Resources just got bought for 6.28 cash and they were trading at 5.91 yesterday. Reality check for share owners...that has to suck for the long Storm shareholders...I mean I am sure they woiuld want to get a premuim higher then this. Storm has top notch assets.  Only reason I avoid them was the indingenous claims around that area are dicey and can change at any moment.  Storm has

[kavern23]

But it shows how high quality stuff will get paid in cash right now. Storm was very consolidated in their focus and that is worth alot.  We all should cheer for Tamarack Valley to have awesome financial results so they can buy PROP. I am looking forward to open.  I have a nice sized oil short position< think I am short at around 84.51, I will double down if I have too lol and

[JohnJBond]

I consider storm to be valued at about double the current price of OBE (total value). That is a very rough consideration, given that they are very distant comparables. That said, a $6.28/share sale of storm is like a $20/share valuation of OBE (double the asset value, minus liabilies, all divided by shares)