Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Missing Kavern....

[kavern23]

I have been away lately from the computer as I have been supporting the Freedom Convoy. 

My reasons have zero to do with the vax,  I am vaxxed twice.  It doesnt matter.

My reason more so are fear of Justin Trudeau taking more money from the oil patch to fund the massive budget deficit gap Canada currently has.

Few canadians are really paying attention to just how broke Canada is....Justin will be looking for a new source of gov revenue and taxing oil companies more with the current high energy prices is what he will look at.

The higher oil prices go...easier it is for Justin to put a new tax in 2022.

Don't be naive...Justin and his crew will look at this. They can't squueze more out of the tax payer. Oil companies with the money.

I supported the convey for free speech and free choice reason (nothing should ever be forced medically by the government)...but my support also was a huge anti trudeau reason.

#freedom over fear
#Pierre for PM

[kavern23]

I mean even look at the amount of reclaimation grants the federal government has dished out in last two years...in the billlions.... But nothing is free.... Oil companies owe the govrnment for that politically. Government can tell the average voter....hey we are taxing oil companies to get back the billions we helped in clean up grants.  See why Trudeau is a problem....he will get NDP

[JohnJBond]

Trudeau will raise taxes Royalties can be raised - but by provinces not Trudeau  They increase with oil prices already  OBE has about 2.5 billion in prior losses to shield future income from taxation  Those tax pools should shield OBE from income tax for several years - at least until the next election  An increased income tax in the meantime will raise the value

[JohnJBond]

Post Covid will be interesting  Canada will likely enter recession  The World will demand more oil and gas     In tough times - luxuries go by the wayside - things like gender issues, global warming, greening the economy etc, all Trudeau's pet projects  The next election will likely be about repairing an economic recession caused by Trudeau.    All

[Kramerkarma]

the outlook at the CAD $ is bleak so I think even in a recession we'd have like a 1.45 /$65 oil ... so wouldn't kill us. JT did his bit.

[JohnJBond]

I doubt a Canadian recession would do anything negative to WTI. Meanwhile it would likely weaken the Canadian dollar, which would increase revenue for Canadian producers. This is a case of a highly over valued highly undervalued part of the Canadian economy.     One went up while the other went down. Real estate etc being the over valued part, oil being the under valued part

[Hendrick3]

Great note and I agree with your analysis. Just to add to the fertilizer story, natural gas the principle feedstock is relatively cheap in North America. Our fertilizer plants will be going flat out and will make a ton of money. This increased demand will also gradually increase nat gas prices in Canada to more like $5-6 I would think.  you are right that food supplies will suffer. I have

[JohnJBond]

When Quebec threatened to separate Canada gave them everything they could want to stay Alberta and Saskatchewan will only take so much Trudeau before they make similar plans.     If it comes down to Canada or Trudeau I suspect a no confidence vote and new election  General question - does the US have a Clearwater type analog - and if so, how big is it?

[JohnJBond]

Every business has inputs and outputs. The best businesses control the price of their inputs and outputs. An average business is a price taker at one end - either at the input or output. A poor business is a price taker and the input and out put. Farmers are prices takes at both ends.     They pay whatever the fertilizer vender says they have to pay.    The

[Kramerkarma]

should say missing JT