RE:RE:RE:ASCO relevance Geneman - I too have been around from the early V2 days. I can try to give a couple scenarios based on the market / trading side. My scenarios assume that Pela works in Mbc like most here are hoping it does. We also have the Car-T tech and the panc trial coming along. First, if Oppenheimer picks up coverage and assigns a buy rating with a price target, the stock will almost certainly immediately jump to whatever it is. Now, question is what target could they assign? Any P3 ready company is worth 1bln all day long. Several recent deals validate this. We also have the very promising panc data which is, by some, close to P3 ready. So where does that bring us? IF Oppenheimer gives us credit for one P3 ready trial the target should be about $15. Credit for two trials = $30
The FDA approval process seems to have evolved the last few years and gaining accelerated approval is less burdensome than it used to be. Particularly for novel agents. It is not out of the realm of possibility to get two AA with P3 requirements- this too should give a SP of $30.
Let's say one way or another we get the SP to $30. This opens the door for a 8-10bln partnership ie SP $145. The acquiring company would then run the trials etc. Keep this in mind. This may perhaps be the most important factor of all in any potential deals - all of the largest pharmas have massive looming patents cliffs. 100's of billions in sales are going to be lost. They are all still flush with Covid cash. They will and have recently been paying up for bolt on assets. This will continue to accelerate. That being said, we are worth whatever someone is willing to pay. Period.
We have to assume the science works in these scenarios. These are only a couple of many possible paths to a deal. The fact that you are here posting is probably another sign something could be close to happening.