What is ONCY worth, when?Some observers have opined a buy out price of over 10 bil as reasonable for ONCY. Compared to Immunometics, which reportedly sold for $21 bil, I would think we are a better bet (less risky, more avenues for success, less dependent on innovation).
What other comparables are there out there?
Tech minded types could perhaps make a spread sheet to show readers an array of comparables.
I tried a different approach a while back. Today simply wall st shows a fair value of ONCY at $72 a share Cdn. That is roughly $5 bill Cdn market cap. You can look at the data for their DCF analysis and see it is based on sales estimates for one indication mBC I guess, from one analyst. Let us double that to consider panc. Then let us add one more round of $5 bil for CAR-T, CRC, and everything else.
Now we need to recognize that the SWS fair market value is the present value calculated at some discount rate, which is adjested for risk. That is what the economists would call the rent, or pure value over the opportunity cost of capital. I would guess big pharma would be willing split all the rents available from pela with us.
That yields an ideal price of about $7.5 Cdn or about $5.7 US. I figure around $6 bil US is something that is achievable. Maybe considerably more.
But when?
Let us remember that the Pan Can announcement completely legitimzed ONCY and made it likely that it will be part of any future combos endorsed by Pan Can results, so long as it continues to work. It made the whole industry take note of our virus.
Let us also note all the contextual variables that Noteable has outlned that suggest a figure much higher than I outlned above may be possible.
The point to make is that time is now on our side. There is no further risk of ONCY failing in terms of its marketability. Some company will want it. So the longer this process takes, within reason, the more value we can expect from the outcome. If we have to wait until December we are likely to get more per share than if we get a deal in September.