RE:Lets try & stay on topic, this is a great and detailed reporThe Report is very detailed and really all should read it even though timelines are pushed out for updates in the phase 3 setting. And it would appear from what I read but is open to interpretation that the report does include possible revenue from Panc.
Hopefully updates sooner than a few months or quarters. It should be by our 3 quarterly webcast at the latest IMO as they have had ample time for definitive agreements for the trial protocols. Any other negotiations would be separate from the precision agreements and the only difference would be in the case of a BO which is most likely off the table as Matt wants to see at least breast and panc through to the end.
We look for an update on Phase III clinical
strategy in both metastatic breast cancer (updated data from the 48-patient BRACELET-1 trial is expected in the next few
months) and in advanced pancreatic cancer in the next quarter or two.
Summary and valuation. We are maintaining our Speculative Buy rating and one-year PT of $8.50 on ONC, with our PT based
on a combination of NPV (35% discount rate) and multiples of our F2028 EBITDA/fd EPS forecasts as shown in Exhibits 1 & 2.
As described above, our model assumes that pelareorep will advance through pivotal Phase III testing in at least two distinct
oncology markets – HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer on which we have commented before,
and advanced, metastatic pancreatic cancer that formed the basis of our analysis above – and that pelareorep can be approved
and launched during the F2028-to-F2030 financial periods for both indications. Breast cancer is the dominant medical market
from which we derive pelareorep royalty revenue but our model assumes that pancreatic cancer-directed pelareorep sales could
contribute up to 19% of consolidated revenue by F2032.