Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

Conditions are right for biopharma M&A to break out

[Noteable]

May 09, 2023 - "In biopharma, there are many reasons to believe that M&A is ready to surge. EY global deals leader Subin Baral said in an interview with Fierce Pharma that drugmakers are set to “pull the trigger.”

Meanwhile, West Monroe analyst Jennifer O’Brien says there are a confluence of factors at play in the industry that will convince companies to dive into the market. 

“It’s an interesting time, right on this perfect storm for biotechs and where big pharmas are in terms of building out their core specialty areas and having capital to deploy,” O’Brien said. “I think it’s a great space.”

The incentive to seek out deals is high for big drugmakers because of looming patent cliffs and the need to secure replacement products. Another factor favoring M&A is the industry trend of companies selling off business units to focus on their more profitable pharma offerings.

Perhaps the biggest reason to expect more deals is the firepower on hand for many big pharma companies—$1.5 trillion, Baral says.

The desire of multiple firms to make high-money deals has been apparent in the industry’s most recent transactions. Before Seagen sold off to Pfizer, three other companies were involved in talks with the biotech, according to SEC filings. And before Amgen closed last year’s biggest biopharma acquisition, paying $28 billion for Horizon, Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi were in the hunt.

The firepower for Pfizer comes in part thanks to $57 billion in sales last year of its COVID products—the Comirnaty vaccine and the Paxlovid oral antiviral. In addition to the Seagen buy, the company had two of the top three deals in the industry last year, paying $11.6 billion for Biohaven and $5.4 billion for Global Blood Therapeutics.

If a splurge of deals is imminent, Pfizer was just ahead of the trend, shaking off the unfavorable microeconomic conditions—inflation, high interest rates, overall economic uncertainty—to make deals influenced by compelling industry factors.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lets-make-deal-conditions-are-right-biopharma-ma-break-out-analysts

[Noteable]

“The climate is right for everything outside of the macroeconomic conditions,” Baral said. “Companies will work around the macro factor because the underlying business requires you to do these deals. Obviously, different companies have different thresholds of appetite, and some companies have a lot more firepower. But in general, we feel this is just a matter of time.”

[Noteable]

May 09, 2023 - Takeda confirmed to that the company is making changes “in a few specific areas of the organization that impact some roles as a result.” But the pharma stressed that “there is no plan for a company-wide reduction.” although discovery and preclinical efforts in AAV gene therapy will be discontinued, alongside research and preclinical work in rare hematology. The move

[Noteable]

May 09, 2023 - Gilead's M&A activites carry on with the buyout of a private PARP inhibitor company XinThera. After deals with start-up MiroBio and Tmunity, Gilead is now further expanding beyond its HIV products with the acquisition of the oncology and inflammation start-up company XinThera, which is developing oral small molecule PARP inhibitors for various tumors.

[Noteable]

Biotech M&A deals have tallied $64 billion so far this year. In the last few weeks alone, Pfizer said it will pay $43 billion for Seagen; Merck agreed to acquire Prometheus Biosciences for $10.8 billion; and GSK said it will buy Bellus Health for $2 billion. According to Tim Opler at Torreya (who referenced his firm’s research), “It’s a blistering pace on track for $300 billion by

[Noteable]

There are a few here who might gain some insight from the the Greek philospher Epicurus' epistemology who, while agreeing to the Cynics'  quest for honesty, correspondingly rejected their confused thought, "insolence and vulgarity", instead teaching that honesty must be coupled with courtesy and kindness.

[Noteable]

May 12, 2023 - Big Pharma is making strategic moves designed to focus resources on core therapeutic areas. Today GSK announced the gradual sale of its stake in the consumer health company Haleon. Just last week, Pfizer, which has a 32% stake in Haleon, told the Financial Times that it would begin a “slow and methodical” sale of its holdings. “We love the Haleon business but it's not

[Noteable]

Just in time for what comes following ASCO.

[fox7mf]

What exactly should we expect following ASCO? Officials from PFE, Merck, Roche & whoever else waiting with mock cheques for $10b? What happens after ASCO is likely the ramping up of negotiations, if they've even started, and perhaps earnest offers months down the road. My opinion. 

[Capitalista]

Agreed, fox7mf.  I doubt that we'll see anything more than a several-day-long rise/fall with ASCO (much as I would like to see something more permanent).  ONC will not see a sustained price rise until some sort of business deal is announced.  Study results have not moved share price significantly in the last year or two.  We need a business deal.  

[Noteable]

Pre-clinical CD47 company Trillium Therapeutics was acquired by Pfizer for US2.3 Billion late last year without a 'business deal" being telegraphed beforehand. Comparatively, ONCY is a Phase 3 ready cancer company that has "de-risked" their immune molecule platform pelareorep asset in mulitple cancers including breast and pancreatic cancer, as examples.

[Capitalista]

Noteable, I'd say that Pfizer buying Trillium was the catalyst that drove up the share price, regardless of the market reaction. This is the type of business deal I'm talking about. Generally these acquisitions are not telegraphed for compliance reasons.   I think ONC is a fabulous takeover target.  Just waiting for the day . . .

[Noteable]

Conversely, traders have been given plenty of notice of the potential US$10 Billion acquisition value of ONCY that could happend as quickly as that for Trillium Therapeutics 

[Noteable]

As already posted :  Pre-clinical CD47 company Trillium Therapeutics was acquired by Pfizer for US2.3 Billion late last year without a 'business deal" being telegraphed beforehand. Comparatively, ONCY is a Phase 3 ready late-stage cancer company that has "de-risked" their immune molecule platform pelareorep asset in mulitple cancers including breast and pancreatic cancer

[westcoast1000]

I hold the same views as capitalista and Fox7mf. We await a business deal of substance which could range from a buyout, to a partnership, to funding for two p 3 trials, from best to least impact.

[fox7mf]

Exactly. BD deals. FDA approval and guidance on one or multiple indications. Accelerated approval on one or multiple indications. We need NRs with substance to get this SP up to where it needs to be ($35-$40)  to allow for a $10b buyout to begin to be feasible. 

[Noteable]

Setting the condition have been pre-clinical biotech companies being acquired for $Billions by Big Pharma due to the increased competition for biotech cancer assets, Pharma's looming patent cliff, and Big Pharma's US$1.5 Trillion in buying firepower, to name a few, and repeat what has already been posted.

[Noteable]

Biopharma’s 25 largest companies have almost $1.5tn in available “firepower”, EY estimates in its annual M&A Firepower report, a figure that has grown substantially since 2020.  EY’s defines firepower as a company’s capacity to fund transactions, and calculates this using various inputs including cash, debt capacity and market cap.  The biopharma sector has moved away from mega

[Noteable]

Deals in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion may be at highest risk from FTC scrutiny, according to a note from Well Fargo analysts. 

[fox7mf]

Well, there goes my dream of an Immunomedics-esque buyout!!!!;)

[Noteable]

Not quite so. An Immunomedics-esque buyout of US$21 Bln can still be something that you can dream of since, like Immunomedics at the time of IMMU's acquisition by Gilead, Oncolytics Biotech has no sales presently.

[Noteable]

Like Immunomedics at the time of IMMU's acquisition by Gilead, Oncolytics Biotech has no sales presently and its acquisition by Big Pharma would not fall under the FTC's scrutiny.

[Lesalpes29]

We are going to be the target of a  buyout before year end. Only speculating here... but all the stars seem to be aligned. BP let start the war before my next vacation end of june! GL

[JohnnyYeg]

DAMN - only $12 billion then!! NOt even worth staying in the stock... ;) ;)

[Quentin30]

12 Billion...  well of course, I mean it's obvious that buyout will be AT LEAST 12 billion, given that the stock is currently around 100 million...  most stocks being bought out rise 120 times... LOL. Someone pass me the same thing Noteable is smoking please... what complete bs.

[Azzak34]

Haha getting nervous Quentin? 

[Quentin30]

Not in the slightest Azzak. I have a substantial core holding... I just think a buyout for 12 billion... is pure pixie dust Somewhere between 500M-1B and only if results are that compelling, then yes. No matter, we shall see in a matter of days what ONCY has been hiding from us... 

[Azzak34]

That's what I do too. I buy a substantial amount of shares then trash the stock and the management on those stocks forums. You and me.... we know what we're doing Quentin. 

[westcoast1000]

Pretty funny, Azzak!

[Lesalpes29]

Quentin you can buy your first shares, it's probably not too late!

[Quentin30]

LOL.. thank you for the permission Lesalpes29.. but you're a bit late, I bought my first ONCY shares back in 2004. and through the miracle of trading, I'm only down 30%... here;s to good things on 25th and beyond... time for this old dog to show it knows a new trick or two.

[westcoast1000]

Quentin, I do not think they would sell the company for under $2 bil, with good reason. They have stated they expect to be a two ph 3 company by the end of the year. In those indications, with those results, I feel that would easity justify $2 to $4 bil. Plus all the additional prospects for I/O combos is huge. The CAR-T market along could be worth many billions. 

[Noteable]

“It’s an interesting time, right on this perfect storm for biotechs and where big pharmas are in terms of building out their core specialty areas and having capital to deploy,” O’Brien said. “I think it’s a great space.” Desperate? Only if you are Big Pharma which is facing a looming patent cliff, increased competition from other Big Biophamrma companies, and a product pipeline

[Noteable]

" The incentive to seek out deals is high for big drugmakers because of looming patent cliffs and the need to secure replacement products. Another factor favoring M&A is the industry trend of companies selling off business units to focus on their more profitable pharma offerings.  Perhaps the biggest reason to expect more deals is the firepower on hand for many big pharma

[Noteable]

Repost: May 09, 2023 - "In biopharma, there are many reasons to believe that M&A is ready to surge. EY global deals leader Subin Baral said in an interview with Fierce Pharma that drugmakers are set to “pull the trigger.”  Meanwhile, West Monroe analyst Jennifer O’Brien says there are a confluence of factors at play in the industry that will convince companies to dive into

[Noteable]

Carey Johnson has a lot to learn about the current biotech M&A environment and the business development activites that are ready to move forward in H2 2023.

[Noteable]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Noteable]

And what about this ?  https://cpsa.ca/news/dr-carey-johnson-found-not-guilty-of-unprofessional-conduct/

[westcoast1000]

Noteable you are being very disagreeable, and unprofessional to say the least. Because Geneman has an opinion that is a few degrees different than yours is no reason for attacking him. Please give us all a break. We have enough to think about with ONCY.

[Buckhenry]

Assak34 must be unnoteable's mini me....  

[Azzak34]

You know what I didn't release you had ORD so I'm going to stop being mean to you. It's not fair. 

[Noteable]

I don't appreciate anyone trying to soft bash ONCY, just as Quentin30 has been called out in trying to do.

[Noteable]

Ask Carey Johnson (Geneman) if I been taking things out of context now Buckhenry or should I have just brushed-off the soft-bashing that he, you and Quentin30 have been trying to accomplish.

[Noteable]

May 26, 2023 - Experts at PWC, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley agree that pharma-related M&A is expected to pick up in 2023. PWC predicts deal volumes to resemble prior years with the effect of the US Inflation Reduction Act on pricing better understood and less uncertainty surrounding business conditions, according to an article entitled Pharmaceutical & Life Sciences: US

[Noteable]

Conditions for an acquisition are right ...  white knights and all !

[Noteable]

Smaller bolt-on deals – those under US$25 Billion which have an easier time clearing regulatory hurdles – will be attractive, Evaluate says. Big Pharma's M&A "sweet spot" is between US$5 Billion and US$25 Billion. ONCY's M&A valuation for a company with an immune molecule platform in pelareorep and with 2 Phase 3 ready clinical trials is between US$10 Billion and US$15

[Noteable]

June 23, 2023 - Haymarket Marketing reported that:  "PwC said that it expects pharma and life sciences deal activity to remain strong in the second half of 2023 as the gap between buyers and sellers narrows. PwC contended that companies with capital flexibility will have a greater willingness to deploy resources and avoid the prospect of losing a competitive advantage or drawing interest

[Noteable]

https://ca-finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/big-pharma-goes-shopping-biotech-145100817.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16876514221320&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fca.finance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fbig-pharma-goes-shopping-biotech-145100817.html

[Noteable]

June 08, 2023 - "Big Pharma Goes Shopping: Biotech Acquisitions Set to Skyrocket" ' When it comes to biotech M&A activity, cancer has been one of the hottest areas of focus. This is due in part to the significant progress that has been made in the development of cancer treatments in recent years. With new treatments showing promise in clinical trials and the potential for

[Noteable]

"...European players used their earnings calls last week (a/o April 30th) to suggest they may be turning on the spending taps later in the year. ..." - fiercebiotech

[Noteable]

June 06, 2023 - RBC Capital - Ahmed Attia: The reality is that the deal chessboard is active. And the larger players recognize that their competitors are going to zone in on the same assets.  I think the pillars that are driving some of the M&A include the need to accelerate top-line growth. Growth is still a key driver for large-cap players. And fundamentally, the market has been

[Noteable]

Smaller bolt-on deals – those under US$25 Billion which have an easier time clearing regulatory hurdles – will be attractive, Evaluate says.

[Noteable]

Related to Big Pharma ramping up M&A activity in the second half of 2023 .  June 08, 2023 -  The Federal Trade Commission (FTC)  is building out its deep dive into the pharmacy benefit management industry yet again. Group purchasing organization (GPOs) are also often sister companies to PBMs, which has similarly drawn ire from legislators. Interest in reforms to the

[Noteable]

Interesting that Quentin30 never talks about the positives.

[Noteable]

Repeat: June 08, 2023 - "Big Pharma Goes Shopping: Biotech Acquisitions Set to Skyrocket" ' When it comes to biotech M&A activity, cancer has been one of the hottest areas of focus. This is due in part to the significant progress that has been made in the development of cancer treatments in recent years. With new treatments showing promise in clinical trials and the

[Noteable]

June 13, 2023 - "Pharmaceutical and biotech companies spent $85bn on acquisitions in the first five months of the year, marking a dramatic recovery in dealmaking as they seek to replenish their drug pipelines." “It’s a big turnround and completely bucking the overall trend in the M&A market,” said Tim Opler, managing director at Stifel’s global healthcare group. https://www.ft.com

[Noteable]

June 16, 2023 ".....small mergers and acquisitions of biotechnology companies (transactions 10-15 billion dollars) could now accelerate. Indeed, the need for mergers and acquisitions is not about to disappear. Over the next few years, many large-cap biopharmaceutical companies will need to replace revenue from blockbuster drugs—drugs with annual sales of $1 billion or more—whose patents

[Noteable]

Swiss Big Pharma Roche has its sights set firmly on early-stage biotechs as potential targets, judging by CEO Thomas Schinecker’s, Ph.D., comments. “We are always open to M&A, and we always check all the opportunities that are on the market,” Schinecker said on an earnings call April 26. When it comes to companies in early-stage development, “there may be more opportunities now, simply

[Noteable]

As already posted :  “I think in the late-stage opportunities, there are not that many and it's much more competitive,” said Roche's CEO Thomas Schinecker, Ph.D..  [ONCY is a Phase 3 ready late-stage oncology drug platform company involving pelareorep in the treatment of multiple cancers]

[Noteable]

" Raghav Mittal, assistant director at research firm Acuity Knowledge Partners, said in an email that acquisitions of biotech companies working on oncology or immunology treatments could be worth $5 billion to $25 billion a pop." Well it appears that biotech analysts now view Big Pharm's M&A  "sweet spot" as expanding to US$25 Billion. Consequently ONCY

[Noteable]

ONCY's potential acquirers see ONCY Phase 3-ready data as mature enough to act accordingly. All to happen soon enough.