Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

Who knows what ? When or how?

[canadafan]

I think worth repeating.
Not one person posting on here, including myself knows if or when Onc will have a partner or buy out.
We do know, they have two " phase 3 ready"...opportunities.
one being Mastetis breast cancer, the other being Pancreatic cancer.
Both with FDA " fast track " designation.
We also know, from day one of incorporating they have a mission to prove the science & then let a larger pharma company get Pelareorep to market.
We also know they have on- going " interests" with Pfizer, Roche, Incyte ( Irene study MBc trilple neg).
To say that either has walked away, or close to a deal is pure speculation.
Myself?
I look at the long history.
They had both successes & failures over the years. ( so did Apple ..look up the Lisa) 
What matters, is where they are now.
Onc made a paradigm shift when they started aware-1 , Bracelet etc.
They discovered Pelareorep works best as a co- therapy.
All of the trials since 2017/18 have been co- therapy with outside large pharma.
imho, Roche would appear to be the most logical partner or takeover candidate.
If the pancreatic results move forward, similar to the first part of the trial, they have a potential blockbuster.
Regrettably that opportunity may add more time. Then again, we have no idea what results are showing in the whole Goblet gambit.
imaging for a moment: presently pancreatic cancer is more or less a death sentence.
The first set of results with Pela & Tecentriq ( Roche), showed amazing improvement over the existing standard if care. AND...one complete response, tumour gone!
I commend those posting the comparables for buy- out , etc etc.
I also know mangement stated ( years ago), any takeover would have to start with a "B" to even be considered.
meaning one billion $$ and up.
Since then they have proven much more, and now have 2 phase 3 ready opportunities.
Those who point to open market share price as an indicator of buy- out value...please educate yourself.
investopedia has a great explanation how junior biotechs are valued. That being based on future income potential of the drug(s).
In simple terms, if Roche for example wanted to buy Onc? The big question what would the Return on investment be? Long term? For Roche? 
Assuming Pela broadens the Pancreatic cancer market for tecentriq & Roche. What would that equate to in sales & profit $$.
That $$ value is what determines, what they could invest in buying Onc.
You will notice the existing SP of Onc has zero to do with that calculation.
The analysts ( all have buy ratings), use that " math" ....project forward. Make assumptions on a product to market date. Then they apply NPV discounts to give a forward looking sp target.
None of the analysts have discussed or estimated a buy- out.
Reason? They need to provide analysis with what they can substantiate.
Such as if Pela gets to market, with a partner etc etc....that is clearly stated as a mission on their web site.
Being bought out is not.
Using present day data & public information the analysts have price targets of $3 to $18.
They all add disclosures. Should phase 3 start, partnership or newer clinical developments, the targets would be raised.
Saying all that, there is nothing stopping any pharma, or larger corporation from stepping up with an offer.
Great week all.

[lonc17]

Based on today's trading, it would appear that at least one person knows something.  Fortunately, that person also seems to have a supply of cash to back up their hunch. 

[Buckhenry]

Probably  just day trading. Will sell off later today. Don't get your hopes up. 

[Azzak34]

Ah bucko, you bitter little idiot. Let us have our day and if it's sells off you can come back later and annoy us all again. 

[Buckhenry]

I love getting under assak's skin. Stocks are about buying and selling and hopefully making money. You dreamers made any lately on this stock???

[Azzak34]

Today dope! The only thing your under is educated. 

[Buckhenry]

So how much did you sell today assak?. You only make or... lose money when you sell. Otherwise you are either up or down you dope. 

[Azzak34]

Ah come on Bucky don't get testy. Not a single share. I'm obviously not as talented as you at this investing stuff. 

[Buckhenry]

Assak that's the first true statement you have made!!

[Azzak34]

So go short ONCY and what else would we do? 

[Buckhenry]

If you had the foresight  to have bought Friday  you could have made 25% this morning  then buy back when it goes down... rinse and repeat...

[Azzak34]

Haha you truly are stupid. You bought Friday did ye? 

[Angler101]

Today's volume was an entity of some kind buying 100k shares at market......imagine what happens soon when a bunch of different buyers come in wanting several 100k......sure hope Quentin is still waiting for October by then

[Azzak34]

You have the trades Angler? 1 entity bought 100k? 

[Angler101]

No.....I don't speng a lot of time paying attention to it.....that was just an assumption....bigger buyer(s) than usual at least.....patience will pay off here

[Quentin30]

hey spangler, still got my core holding... so if ONCY rises I win... are you not bright enough to follow ? I trade this stock, AND I maintain a core holding... Only a brainless twonk in a dinghy would be all out at sea with such a complex idea... If this rise is sustained... brilliant, I win If it drops as it so often does over the summer, I'll buy around 1.15 again.  Now go spank your

[Angler101]

Hey Quentin....seeing as you're so self-proclaimed brilliant, tell us, did you sell these so-called "trading stocks" before yesterday's run up of 18%, or before today's 7.5% run up? (so far)......I'm not sure whether you made it up to grade 4 or 5 math, but either way, according to my calculations, your brilliant strategy is losing you money, and all you seem to be

[Buckhenry]

Let's all celebrate... we are back to where we were 2 weeks ago!!!!

[canadafan]

Actually we are two weeks closer to the Pancreatic cancer trial update. .....You know, the one with Roche, that brought to attention immediately gaining FDA fast track approval & moving the trial to phase 2b? The same trial that indicated results 3x better than the existing standard of care. Including one complete remission. The share price?  I recall Mr. Buck Henry , advised

[fox7mf]

Pancreatic trial update will probably be end of October at ESMO and we'll probably get a bump in SP similar to the one Bracelet reveal at ASCO provided...nada. Data won't do it...a NR on a BD deal will.

[YegJeeber]

GREAT synopsis CF!!