Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

Reality Check

[Quentin30]

1) For the past few years, the pumper crowd have been stating time and again, that the value in ONCY was related not to potential revenue from sales of Pela, but to the synergy it would give to CPI company, and thus increase their sales...

so where are we with that... mBC - that'll be five years wasted then. ONCY repeats the mantra that they have derisked their Phase III because of Bracelet-1... Really ?? Isn't the whole point of a randomised trial (IND-213) to generate data that removes such risk... They're basically telling us they thought the data was a fluke... that's odd as the FDA granted them a SPA to conduct a phase III...  So what really happened... Partner after partner came to the war room, saw the data, and didn't want to pay for the straight phase III... well, now that a CPI is out of the picture, WHO is going to pay for this... In light of that, my contention is that ONCY is just stalling for time, until something positive comes of the Panc trial

2) Allelujah, Excellent Panc data incl a CPI... Now surely this should make the CPI company stand up and take notice... Who was the mystery institutional investor..? Being selected for the advanced Phase III was brilliant news...  a third party was taking note of ONCY's data. THIS is the big positive.

3) The recent financing - oh dear, here we go again. What they have raised will not be enough to complete either trial. And everytime the pps starts to get interesting ONCY does a financing... Every time I want it to be different, but it never is... Come on folks, what does a financing at such a low price say..???  It screams at me that there is no white knight coming to buy out the company. 

4) Oh Canadafan, where is that deal you promised us all regarding Car-T - nothing, nada... yet again.

Conclusion - There is no-one to pay for mBC Ph III, and no-one is planning on buying ONCY, so we are left with a partnership (ONCY talked about this ad nauseum for over ten years with only Adlai Nortye to write home about) to pay for Panc Ph III. But while we await said partner (becaue they want more data), the stock will just get diluted yet further. Massive price appreciation if there is no partner and no buyout, can only come on positive phase III results... which is years away... invest at your own peril.

Now it doesn't matter if you agree with me or not,just look at Matt Coffey's statements over the past 5 years regarding when Pela would be on the market (fireside chat from 3-4 years ago) then look at the stock price performance and share count over this time. Then consider patent expiry looming in 2028... not enough time to run the mBC phase III and get approval... that I believe is a busted flush

[13X2413]

I have to admit, you're starting to make more sense. (Unfortunately) With the price getting beaten down without news, it makes you wonder what's going on behind the scenes. Do some people (the sellers) know something that we don't?

[CMHarring218431]

I do not think those people,if they exist, know more than the institutional investor....unless management kept bad news from them. Doubt it

[CMHarring218431]

I'm certainly not one to comment on the science here. Admittedly, someone(s) bailing on this stock. Do they know something....I don't think so. My opinion only. I do know a little about how the market makers think and operate. Other than the usual hype and much anticipated success by a bunch of folks.... they see a window where they can walk it down with no imminent news

[ONCInvestor]

It's been forgotten, but the issue (if memory serves since it's been such a long time) with IND-213 was that the principal investigators believed that the cohorts were insufficiently randomized. Hence Bracelet.  I've been in this stock since the busted P3 for head-and-neck. Should have bailed then, but stuck around dollar-cost averaging out of FOMO. (Strangely, investing and

[13X2413]

It's ALWAYS a red flag when ANY company changes their focus. I've seen it over and over again. 

[JohnnyYeg]

Red flags?? Interesting...  1. They hold options, as many other company's management groups do. 2. ONCY does not run the trials - organizations/hospital research groups do 3.They continuously learn more about indications, and how Pela works in conjunction with other treatment elements. 4. See 3. My take on it anyways. 

[Buckhenry]

Let's all be patient while we lose money and this stock resets back to $1.50.... cheers and blue skies.  

[Buckhenry]

Oncy is pleased to announce their stock has lost over $15 million since last week's boondoggle....

[jimsenior]

This is very difficult to handicap. Win or lose it is amost a certainty to be in the text books. I still think GOBLET and Roche are the key. mBC is difficult and complex, and ONC/Y has not brought any clarity for me. So I wonder if Roche has learned enough from AWARE-1, BRACELET, and AN's Phase 3 mBC Bridging Study to move on both mBC and PDAC which is apparently what ONCY wants. Further, if

[Capitalista]

The one thing I gleaned from ONC/Y’s recent public offering is that they really are in no hurry to sell the company.  This confirms the statement made in the last quarterly webcast that they were going to take their time wrt a buyout.  However, they did say that a buyout was a goal.  I’m wondering if that thinking has changed with the PanCan announcement.  They may be rolling

[Noteable]

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.onc&postid=35567914

[venture009]

Nice post Capitalista. I totally agree with your analysis. The old adage "a bird in the hand -" applies here. Like you I worry about the PIII and results and a move should be made before a PIII.